It sells 76,000 cars a year, with a revenue of 7 billion US dollars, a loss of 800 million US dollars, and a market value of 41 billion US dollars. This is Tesla. It sells 10 million vehicles a year, with a revenue of 166 billion US dollars, a net profit of 9.2 billion US dollars, and a market value of 56 billion US dollars. This is GM.
The inner CEO of Marie Barra is collapsing. The eyes of the people who eat melon are confused. Is the fund manager on Wall Street in the water?
This logic can be established when we suspect that a financial elite with a high IQ, a graduated school, and an experienced financial elite is ill. However, if we believe that a large number of financial elites are collectively nervous, the biggest possibility of being sent to a mental hospital is ourselves.
Is this world broken? Of course not, to a large extent, our perception has gone wrong, the world has changed, but we are not aware of it.
The market value of an enterprise, an angle of understanding, can be considered as the money that a company can earn in its life cycle. The market value of GM and Tesla fully experienced the likes and dislikes of Wall Street fund managers on the prospects of the two car business models.
Why Tesla can be glorified
For all startups, when they come out and fool investors, the key elements of the story should include: a, market growth rate b, company growth rate c, competitiveness d, business model. Let's take a look at Tesla from these perspectives:
1. Tesla has opened up a new category, standing on the trend
This is self-evident. Musk's Tesla redefines the electric car and opens up a new category. Although the market segment at this stage is very small, the prospects are extremely broad. There is reason to believe that new energy vehicles will complete the sweep of fuel vehicles for a period of time.
After five years of incubation, investors can be confident that this new, fantastic electric vehicle market is at the tipping point of take-off.
The reason is: a, product appeal, maturity issues have been resolved. b. The price/performance ratio of the product and the fuel-to-vehicle ratio are not so bad, and they are approaching and surpassing quickly. c. The infrastructure such as charging service is gradually improved. At present, it is not a problem, and even the experience is better than a gas station. d, electric vehicle products have reached a certain amount of possession, and user satisfaction is very high. 91% of Tesla owners said they would buy Tesla when they bought the car again and become the annual consumer satisfaction champion of Consumer Magazine. Who is the death knell for?
2. Tesla gains a premium from the market leader
Any market leader will receive a higher premium. In the same situation, the market value of GM is only 1/3 of Toyota's.
Tesla is considered to be the leader in the electric vehicle market. Although BYD's sales will be even larger, Tesla's sales have an advantage and the power battery shipments are even larger.
But this is not Tesla's core competitiveness. The most successful part of Musk is to make Tesla a user-friendly smart electric car with high user satisfaction and Tesla being shaped into a high-end brand.
Tesla's core competencies include:
a, battery cost. If Musk said the cost of the pack has reached $124/Kwh, it will kill all the competing products.
b. Software with OTA wireless upgrade. Tesla's software services, there is not a competing product in the world to follow up and match, to see if China's Internet car companies can break this monopoly. Did I ignore SAIC Roewe?
c, Autopilot. Tesla's advanced driver assistance system has a competitive advantage that competing products do not have. Whether it is a traditional car or an emerging car company, there is very little competition with Tesla in autonomous driving. Look at waymo, but the car giants are on alert for the waymo.
d, super charging network. Tesla's owners can get 300km of cruising range in a 20-30 minute charge. The domestic charging experience is 1 hour charging and 150km of cruising range. More importantly, Tesla's charging network is well covered and the facilities are in excellent condition, only for Tesla owners. Domestic public charging piles are in poor condition, people are generally unaware of where they are distributed, whether they can be recharged, and whether they need to wait in line.
e. Long-term operational experience. Compared to other newly entered competitors, Tesla already has 200,000 owners with high repurchase intentions, which is a huge brand asset. At the same time, due to the long operating hours, Tesla knows the pitfalls and challenges of operating electric vehicle companies.
3. More diversified business models
Tesla's sales have a higher gross margin than around the GM, which is around 25%.
Crit damage has only just begun. Given Tesla's networking capabilities and self-developed software systems, each sells a car, as opposed to obtaining a high net worth user. After the possession reaches a certain level, Tesla can launch value-added services on the big screen of the car like Apple. Cooperate with banking, aviation, entertainment, medical, sports, education and other industries to provide competitive and exclusive membership services for car owners. This is a typical Internet value-added operation. Apple's latest financial report shows that in 2016, Appstore's revenue was 28.5 billion US dollars, enough to enter the Fortune 500 list, the gross profit is amazing.
Due to self-employment, Tesla will enjoy the profit of all the aftermarket services of the owner. Tesla will also get a gas station-like service in the charging service. Their electrical energy can be generated by their own solar panels, which will gradually reduce their dependence on power suppliers. As of December 31, 2016, Tesla has 5031 supercharged piles worldwide.
Musk continues to try to lead the imagination of investors, he announced that relying on its own driverless features and car OS system, Tesla will enter the vehicle sharing market. Owners can voluntarily join the vehicle sharing network to generate revenue by providing carpooling services to others. What can be yy is that the future car is not only a consumable item, but also a productivity tool that not only provides revenue but also empowers humans.
Can GM become Tesla?
The centuries-old shop is at a revolutionary juncture and reborn from the palace. Such vivid examples are familiar. For example, Andy Grove turned to the chip market at the moment when Intel was hit by Texas Instruments in the storage market, and it was a great success. IBM lost in the PC market and successfully transformed it into Lenovo and transformed it into software and services. Before Apple became great, the computer sold very badly. Jobs’ ipod and iphone slammed into a cannon, bringing intelligence to humans.
However, there are more examples of large enterprise groups falling down when the environment changes dramatically. The worst is Nokia. There are also sun, yahoo, Motorola, Kodak and so on. Christensen has a very subtle exposition of the reasons in the book The Innovator's Dilemma.
In traditional auto companies, when companies are pushing for drastic reforms, the resistance comes from:
1. The traditional business is still the source of revenue and profit, and it is absolutely strong.
In most cases, emerging businesses cannot become No. 1 of the company. Because the traditional business also needs to compete with Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford, Nissan, Honda and China's own independent brand companies, it requires a lot of research and development costs, requires a lot of marketing expenses, and requires a large headcount budget. Every time you try to cut costs from the traditional business, you will be violently rebounded and be dismissed as a "successful move."
The emerging business market is small, the gross profit is low, and the R&D investment is large. As the boss of this department, it is easy to become a target in the company. Especially when the development is not going well, the voice of opposition will come one after another.
For Musk, Tesla is his whole, and if he is unsuccessful, he will be a man. For GM, the sales of electric vehicles are negligible. The success or failure of electric vehicles seems to have no effect on the company's survival, and the company is at the end of the scorn chain. Who is the person responsible for the electric vehicle? Is Dan Oman? I really don't know.
2, upstream and downstream wraps
Upstream power system suppliers are bound to go mad. They will do everything they can to stop the success of the electric car project, which is determined by the instinct of animal survival.
The dealers welcomed and were willing to sell electric vehicles, but did not accept sales targets. Because your car is not competitive with Teslaby, Bolt is more expensive than Model3, the brand is not as good as others, charging is too boring, and less than half of the electricity is charged in one hour. If GM dares to try direct sales, then you are finished. The American dealer association's combat power is much higher than the domestic Audi dealer association.
Investors in the stock market will also be a problem. When the net profit falls, it will jump out and feel the presence, and the stock price will fall. Aunt Mary-Bara has been under great pressure recently. Morgan Stanley’s chief analyst in the automotive industry has publicly criticized GM’s share price. The price is not the same as it was at the beginning! May I ask Ms. Bara, what do you think? As a professional manager, Bara does not have the strength of director Li Yanhong, how the stock price loves. So consider whether to sell the Opel holding 88 years.
3, concept
In the past few years, traditional car people have been arguing about Tesla. They believe that the automotive industry is a typical capital-intensive, technology-intensive, high-level industry representative. It needs to withstand loneliness for 20 years, and Tesla will become a car. he died". In fact, using the mouth to say and sing can not stop the progress of Musk, but make his achievements even more great.
Therefore, it is not difficult to explain the reasons. Whether it is pure electric vehicles or unmanned driving technology, automobile companies have invested in research and development more than 20 years ago, but the results so far are slim.
Tesla released its 2016 financial statements and its outlook for 2017. This is a key node. The car company is trying to transform itself into a mass-market car manufacturer from an electric vehicle leader who only plays in high-end market segments. Business.
The challenge for Musk is to control the entire supply chain and achieve production within the stipulated time. At the same time, we must control the cost and not lose too much. Do a good job in cash flow management and don't collapse. Obviously, the road is still long, but the subversion is rushing to the scene.
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