Science and technology prediction is based on the characteristics of science and technology development and social needs, based on the research and analysis of the status quo of science and technology development, using the basic principles and methods of forecasting, to make basic judgments and foresight on the development trend of science and technology and its impact.
Is there any prediction precedent before?
In history, many scientists and even important figures have made scientific and technological predictions, but they are rarely accurate. Many have underestimated the development of science and technology and have made too optimistic estimates of technological development. The more famous past scientific and technological predictions are:
In 1878, the American Telegraph Corporation’s Western Union Telegraph predicted that there were too many shortcomings in the phone and could not be used as an official communication tool;
In 1901, astronomer Newcom believed that machinery could not fly in the air because the machinery was heavier than the air;
In 1932, the famous scientist Einstein pointed out that there is no evidence that nuclear energy can be obtained because of the need to break down atoms;
In 1936, the New York Times estimated that the rocket could not leave the Earth's atmosphere;
In 1939, British Prime Minister Churchill concluded that nuclear energy could not make weapons of great lethality;
In 1946, filmmaker Cunnaco believed that television was quickly eliminated because viewers were tired of staring at television every night;
In 1949, the scientific journal "Popular Machinery" predicted that the future computer weighs 1.5 tons and has 1,000 vacuum tubes;
In 1954, the National College of Cancer Sciences believed that smoking had only a minor role in causing lung cancer;
In 1957, astronomer Jones said that humans landed on the moon in nowhere, and that space travel was a delusion;
In 1965, the artificial intelligence founder Simon predicted that the machine could do anything for humans in 1985;
In 1981, Microsoft founder Gates estimated that no one needed to use more than 637KB of personal computers.
Take a look at the top 10 technology trends predicted by Juniper Research in 2016:
1. Virtual reality (VR) goes to the mainstream
Currently, virtual reality technology has attracted great interest from technology enthusiasts. In 2016, virtual reality will gradually enter the mainstream consumer market. Vendors in this field mainly include Sony, HTC and Facebook Oculus, and these manufacturers are expected to launch new virtual reality helmets next year. The current price of virtual reality helmets is already declining, and will fall further next year, and its application space will expand from the game market to other areas.
2. The growing popularity of social robots
Humans like to socialize and always want to share their lives with others. When you are happy, you want to share happiness with others. When you are depressed, you want to be encouraged by others. But what if there is no object to confide? The answer is a social robot. Such robots can interact with humans, interpret human emotions, and even enhance their behavior based on clues. The representative product of the social robot is the Pepper robot developed by Softbank. After the listing in June this year, 1,000 Peppers were sold out in one minute. Next year, other vendors are expected to launch similar social robots, such as the French robot company Blue Frog RoboTIcs.
3. Wearable technology enters the enterprise market
Currently, wearable technology mainly stays in the personal consumer market, and will gradually enter the enterprise market next year. In one test, the logistics company DHL equipped its employees with smart glasses, which resulted in a 25% increase in product picking efficiency. Juniper Research said in the report that smart glasses will be the first to enter the enterprise market. Subsequently, other wearable devices will follow suit.
4, 5G communication is coming soon
Currently, most smartphones are running on 3G or 4G networks, but everyone is focusing on the next generation of communication technology, the 5G network. Once the 5G network is popular, its speed will reach 100 times that of the 4G network. Several operators are currently testing 5G networks. For example, Ericsson, Huawei and KPN announced in August that they will test 5G networks in the Netherlands. Ericsson and Softbank tested the 5G network in Tokyo in July. ZTE teamed up with KT Communications to launch the 5G trial in Seoul, while Verizon plans to launch in 2017. Commercialization of 5G networks.
5. Cross-platform integration
As we spend more and more time browsing the screen, some companies are beginning to try to improve the communication capabilities between devices, the so-called "cross-platform integration." Microsoft's latest operating system, Windows 10, allows different devices on the same network to play the same game.
6. Bitcoin technology enters the financial market
Although Bitcoin has experienced ups and downs in the consumer market, financial institutions are still investing in the underlying technology of Bitcoin, the “blockchainâ€, which is expected to be introduced into various transactions. The “blockchain†technology has immediate and transparent features, especially for multinational currency transactions, a feature that has attracted the interest of financial institutions. Juniper Research said in the report: "Next year, the technology will be of great use in the financial market."
7. Video game consoles are tightly integrated with cloud computing
Juniper Research said that the most powerful game in 2016 will rely on the combination of video game consoles and cloud services, and it is still too early to turn completely into cloud-based games. The industry generally believes that Nintendo will launch the next-generation game system "Nintendo NX" next year, which can reduce costs through cloud technology. In addition, other major game companies such as Sony and Microsoft have begun to support the technology.
8. E-sports become a new source of income
The global e-sports industry has reached billions of dollars. Some games have attracted millions of online viewers by offering millions of dollars in prizes, such as the Gfinity Championships held in London this year, which provided the winner with a $100,000 prize, attracting more than 30 million viewers worldwide. Next year, professional e-sports activities are expected to generate revenue through the provision of online live broadcast services.
9. More technology to ensure data security is born
As more and more devices access the Internet, and we frequently publish a variety of information on social networks, the amount of data will become larger and larger, which requires us to strengthen security measures in terms of scale and technology. In the future, new software security technologies will be able to identify anomalies in network behavior rather than identifying malicious code in software as it is now.
10. Crowdfunding will become a new angel investment
Thanks to some recent legal adjustments, companies will have new channels for financing in the future. Crowdfunding used only for small-scale financing of some novelty products, but now, startups can make a lot of financing by selling some of the company's shares to other third parties. This new generation of crowdfunding is known as "capital crowdfunding."
These ten predictions, what do engineers think?
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