Analysis: LED lighting market drivers "technology, cost"

LED is widely regarded as the ideal choice for the fourth generation of light source because of its excellent performance. LED light source is superior to traditional light sources such as incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp in terms of luminous efficiency, service life, response time and environmental protection. The luminous efficiency of LEDs has increased year by year and has reached the demand for general lighting applications.

From technology to cost

LED is widely regarded as the ideal choice for the fourth generation of light source because of its excellent performance. LED light source is superior to traditional light sources such as incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp in terms of luminous efficiency, service life, response time and environmental protection. The luminous efficiency of LEDs has increased year by year and has reached the demand for general lighting applications.

According to the latest results released by Cree in 2010, the laser light efficiency of its laboratory white LED reaches 200lm/w, the commercial chip reaches 160lm/w, and it plans to mass produce 200lm/w LED in 2013. The luminous efficacy of the LED lighting package module is 160 lm/w, and the loss of light from the light source to the luminaire is about 50%, and the light output of the luminaire reaches 80 lm/w, which still exceeds the luminous efficiency of the current fluorescent lamp 60-80 lm/w. And far more than the efficiency of incandescent lamps 10-15lm / w.

Analysis: Drivers in the LED lighting market

In terms of light efficiency, LED lighting has reached the standard of replacing traditional light sources. At present, commercialized products have already demonstrated the advantages of LEDs in light efficiency. For example, LED bulbs adopt screw-type base design, which can be directly used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs, without changing existing lamp holders and lines, according to bayonet size and bulbs. Divided into E26 and E17 models, 4W LED bulbs can replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W LED bulbs can replace 40W incandescent bulbs, and 10W LED bulbs can replace 60W incandescent bulbs.

Technically, the LED light efficiency has reached the requirement of replacing the traditional light source. At present, the main factor restricting the rapid popularization of LED lighting is its high cost. In the future, the main direction of LED lighting development should not be the technical upgrade represented by lm/w, but the cost reduction represented by $/lm.

In addition to technology and cost, the positive attitudes of governments and governments in energy conservation and emission reduction, and the suspension and disabling of incandescent products are important factors influencing the replacement of LED lighting. Many developed countries plan to stop manufacturing and ban the use of incandescent light bulbs around 2012. LEDs are an ideal choice for incandescent lamp replacement because of their advantages in energy saving, emission reduction and environmental protection. Once the technology and cost are appropriate, they are expected to receive policies from governments. Strong support.

LED lighting industry investment opportunity

By analyzing the LED-to-fluorescent lamp (CCFL) replacement process in the field of TV backlights, it can be found that the price difference between LED and CCFL backlight is the fastest, and the LED backlight penetration rate rises rapidly. LED lighting replaces traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting to repeat this process.

In the process of rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, LED lighting penetration rate will rise rapidly. In the LED industry, there is a Haitz law proposed by Agilent Roland Haitz, which is considered to be the Moore's Law of the LED industry. Since the commercialization of LEDs, the cost per lumen ($/lm) has dropped by about 20% per year, and from recent data, the brightness increase and cost reduction have accelerated.

According to the US Department of Energy's forecast, the lumen cost of white LED packaging will drop from 25$/klm in 2009 to 2$/klm in 2015, and the average annual cost will drop by more than 30%, while the average annual cost from 2010 to 2012. The decline is close to 40%. We believe that 2011-2012 will be the fastest time-lapse period between LED and traditional lighting, and LED lighting penetration will increase by leaps and bounds during this period. According to our calculations, the cost of LED lighting will be reduced to twice that of fluorescent lamps by around $/lm in 2012. If the LED is about 2.5 times longer than the fluorescent lamp, it will make LED lighting around 2012. The total cost is ahead of fluorescent lighting.

Therefore, we believe that the large-scale replacement of LED lighting will be launched in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point for the LED lighting industry.

At present, traditional lighting includes fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, and HIDs, each accounting for 36%, 23%, 16%, and 13% of general lighting revenue. With the ban of incandescent lamps in various countries, the replacement of fluorescent lamps for incandescent lamps, the replacement of LED lamps for incandescent lamps and fluorescent lamps will be synchronized. The commercial/industrial sector is more active in the use of energy-efficient lighting products due to the fact that commercial/industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity and the government is increasingly demanding energy-saving and emission-reduction.

This process will also be repeated in the replacement of LED light sources. The replacement of LED lighting products first occurs in the commercial/industrial field, and after good demonstration, it is gradually popularized into the field of household lighting.

LCD Module

According to the different backlight sources, LCDs can be divided into two types: CCFL displays and LED displays.
Misunderstanding:
Many users believe that liquid crystal displays can be divided into LEDs and LCDs. To some extent, this understanding is misguided by advertisements.

The LED display on the market is not a true LED display. To be precise, it is an LED-backlit Liquid Crystal Display. The liquid crystal panel is still a traditional LCD display. In a sense, this is somewhat fraudulent. nature! South Korea`s Samsung was once convicted by the British Advertising Association as violating the country`s advertising laws because its [LEDTV" LCD TVs were suspected of misleading consumers. For liquid crystal displays, the most important key is its LCD panel and backlight type, while the LCD panels of displays on the market generally use TFT panels, which are the same. The difference between LEDs and LCDs is only their backlight types: LED The backlight and CCFL backlight (that is, fluorescent lamps) are diodes and cold cathode lamps, respectively.

LCD is the acronym for Liquid Crystal Display, which means "liquid crystal display", that is, liquid crystal display. The LED display refers to a type of liquid crystal display (LCD), that is, a liquid crystal display (LCD) with LED (light emitting diode) as the backlight source. It can be seen that LCD includes LEDs. Corresponding to the LED display is actually a CCFL display.

(1) CCFL
Refers to a liquid crystal display (LCD) with CCFL (cold cathode fluorescent lamp) as the backlight source.
The advantage of CCFL display is good color performance, but the disadvantage is higher power consumption.

(2) LED
Refers to a liquid crystal display (LCD) that uses LEDs (light emitting diodes) as a backlight source, and generally refers to WLEDs (white light LEDs).
The advantages of LED displays are small size and low power consumption. Therefore, using LEDs as a backlight source can achieve high brightness while taking into account lightness and thinness. The main disadvantage is that the color performance is worse than that of CCFL monitors, so most professional graphics LCDs still use traditional CCFL as the backlight source.

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