Editor's note: At the time of the revolution in the automotive industry, major automobile manufacturers have successively introduced policies that attach importance to and promote the popularization of new energy vehicles: Germany has created a multi-dimensional combination of boxing to promote the development of new energy automotive industry, and German car companies have formulated more Electric timetable; California states that sales of electric vehicles must account for a certain proportion of new car sales; Japan emphasizes breakthroughs in technological bottlenecks, moving from unipolar to multipolar; South Korea uses “the highest level of subsidies in the world” Incentives for the promotion of new energy vehicles; many EU countries have announced the complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles.

How do the world's major automobile manufacturers such as Germany, Japan, the United States, and South Korea promote the development of the new energy auto industry? What is the current stage of production and R&D of new energy vehicles in various countries? In response to these problems, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter has been following up on a global basis and has written relevant reports in the hope that it will give a reference to the development of China's new energy automotive industry.

This in-depth report is divided into two articles. The first section published today reviews the new energy automobile industry in Germany and Japan.

New energy car being charged on German street

Germany: The pain of electric cars in big countries

Reporter Joe Jihong Berlin Report

On January 29th, 1886, when Carl Benz made the world's first fuel car, he probably knew that Germany would enter the golden age of automobile powers, but he may not know that today's automobile industry has experienced the tide of electrification revolution. Germany will fall into such a deep sense of crisis. Fortunately, in order to cultivate the electric vehicle market, the German government has developed a multi-dimensional combination of boxing to promote development; German car companies have also set a timetable, and strive to continue to stand in the forefront of industrial change.

Car giants have a sense of crisis

As the "Made in Germany" gold signboard, the automobile industry is one of the pillars of the German economy. Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, Audi... There are numerous German car companies, providing a total of 825,000 jobs, accounting for about 20% of all German corporate income. The automotive industry is Germany's largest export industry, accounting for about one-fifth of Germany's total exports.

In 2017, the German auto industry still set a record high despite the deep scan of the diesel emissions “gate” scandal.

However, Bernhard Mattes, Chairman of the German Automobile Industry Association (VDA), said, "Today's success cannot guarantee tomorrow's victory." In the era of rapid changes in the automotive industry, electric vehicles are the future of the German and even global automotive industry.

The newly appointed German Minister of Economy and Energy, Peter Altmaier, warned at the "Future Automobile Summit" in Berlin recently that if German car companies do not increase their investment in electric vehicles and accelerate their transformation, they will The increasingly fierce competition falls behind people."

More than a hundred years of technology accumulation and industrial accumulation in the auto industry have failed to make this big auto country a matter of peace of mind. The sense of crisis has led the German government to incorporate the development of electric vehicles into the political agenda as early as a few years ago.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel once said high-profile that by 2020, Germany will let 1 million electric vehicles on the road. Although this "magnificent goal" lacks a realistic basis and is more like a "politically correct" declaration, it is not difficult to see the sense of crisis of political and industrial decision makers.

"Bone Sense" Reality Causes Multivariate

In the wave of the transformation of electric vehicles, the sense of crisis in Germany has its own root causes.

According to the German Federal Motor Vehicle Authority (Kraftfahrt Bundesamt), as of January 2018, German electric vehicles hold 98,280 vehicles.

Henning Kagermann, chairman of the German national electric vehicle platform, said that the development of electric vehicles in Germany is still slow. The platform originally expected that with the stimulation of various measures, the average monthly number of newly added electric vehicles in Germany will reach 10,000 in 2017. However, until December 2017, the month that hit a record high for a single month, the number of newly added electric vehicles was only 6316 units, which was far from the target of 10,000 vehicles.

A new survey by global oil giant Exxon Mobil predicts that the growth of German electric vehicles will be very slow. By 2040, the proportion of electric vehicles in all cars will only increase to 20%, and the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles will still be as high as 63. %.

The status of Germany's slightly “skinny” electric vehicle market is diversified.

First, consumer acceptance of electric vehicles is generally low. According to a survey conducted by YouGov, a market research agency, only 13% of people surveyed in Germany have opened electric vehicles. Although 25% of respondents had considered buying an electric car, no one actually acted. The reason is that 69% of respondents believe that the price of electric vehicles is too high, 56% think that the battery mileage is too short, and 38% think that the charging network is too small.

According to Gao Pengfei, product development engineer of China's leading lithium battery manufacturer Ningde Times, about 50% of the current cost of electric vehicles is batteries. The high cost of batteries has caused the price disadvantage of electric vehicles to change in the short term.

Take Volkswagen as an example, the German version of the e-Up model is about 10,000 euros for the fuel engine and about 26,000 euros for the electric version. Even if the government subsidizes 4,000 euros per electric car, the price of the electric version is also Already too high.

In terms of supporting infrastructure, according to data from the German Ministry of Transport, Germany currently has 8,103 ordinary charging piles with a maximum voltage of 22 kilowatts and another 1274 high-voltage fast charging piles. According to the distribution of the states, the maximum number of charging posts in Bavaria is 2,093, followed by 1,696 in North Westphalia and 1,130 in Baden-Württemberg, and only 16 in the Saarland. As of the end of 2017, there were 400 charging stations with charging piles on the highway. Charging is still a big challenge for many electric car drivers.

From the enterprise's subjective level, because the profit margin of electric vehicles is only half that of fuel vehicles, in order to alleviate the pressure of revenue from the promotion of electric vehicles, major car companies have to save costs, such as Daimler developed a 4 billion euros The "cost reduction plan." In this way, the initiative of German car companies to develop electric vehicles is naturally inhibited. Compared with the “burning” of electric vehicles, they are actually more willing to develop clean diesel vehicle technology, thereby extending the “Nugget” time window for fuel vehicles.

Government and Enterprises Promote Market Transformation

In order to nurture the electric car market and accelerate its development, the German government has launched a combo boxing.

In 2010, under the leadership of the government, Germany established the “National Electric Vehicle Platform”, which aims to integrate government, industry and scientific research resources to promote the development of electric vehicles.

On May 18, 2016, the German federal government and the automotive industry jointly launched a "package plan" to stimulate the development of electric vehicles. Among them, the most important measure is to provide subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles. If consumers purchase pure electric vehicles, they will receive a one-off subsidy of 4,000 euros and a subsidy of 3,000 euros for plug-in hybrid vehicles. The funds will be shared by the government and the industry. The plan, with a total capital of 1.2 billion euros, will end at the end of June 2019.

In addition to the most direct subsidies, the purchase of electric cars can also receive many additional benefits provided by the government. For example, there is no need to pay a motor vehicle tax within 10 years after the purchase of a car; the road traffic has the right to use the bus lane; more and more cities have additional dedicated parking spaces for electric vehicles with charging piles; if they have two electric vehicles, they can share one. The license plate number to save an insurance fee.

In response to the battery problem that hampers the development of electric vehicles, the German government has provided support for the development of electric vehicle batteries since 2007 under the framework of the “battery 2020” policy. The main direction of R&D is future-oriented lithium battery system materials and process control technology. The purpose is to produce a new generation of battery systems with higher energy storage and longer cruising range, taking into account both safety and cost.

At present, the cruising range of a fully-charged electric vehicle is about 200 kilometers. By 2020, the goal of car companies is to reach 500 kilometers. Fast charging technology is the main direction for car manufacturers and battery manufacturers, but these areas require huge investments. Daimler plans to invest 10 billion euros in the field of electric vehicles in the coming years.

At the same time, reducing costs is also a key issue. A few years ago, the battery production cost was 1,000 euros per kilowatt-hour, which has now dropped to 250 euros. Consulting firm McKinsey predicts that by 2020 it will further decline to 150 euros.

Germany and the EU have held "battery" summits to discuss solutions for producing batteries in Europe. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs spoke on many occasions and suggested that Europe establish its own battery production plant to provide core technical assurance for the development of electric vehicles in Germany and Europe. The EU has also set a preliminary target of 100 MWh battery capacity.

In addition, the German government and car companies also plan to jointly invest 300 million euros for the expansion of charging infrastructure. The goal of the new government that Germany has just established is to build another 100,000 charging piles by 2020, of which one third is high voltage charging piles. In addition, subsidies are used to encourage private installation of charging posts.

In 2012, a number of major German car companies participated in the establishment of Hubject, the world's largest digital B2B electric vehicle charging service trading platform, and are committed to providing a variety of solutions for charging electric vehicles. “For all market participants, the future is not simply a matter of replacing electric vehicles with electric vehicles, but a problem that reshapes the way of travel.” said Hubject chief executive Christian Hahn, “The future The travel tool will be an interconnected smart world."

Car companies embrace "electrical" in succession

Although there is still hesitation about the development of electric vehicles in the short term, German car companies have established electric timetables.

According to data from the German Automobile Industry Association, in 2017, the German electric vehicle market grew by 117%, achieving the highest growth rate in the world. In February of this year, 7 of the 10 best-selling electric models were manufactured by German car makers.

The chairman of the association, Matters, said that by 2020, German car companies will invest 40 billion euros in the field of electric vehicles, and the number of electric vehicles will reach 100 models, which is more than twice that of today.

Hubject CEO Haren said that in order to accelerate the development of electric vehicles, it is necessary to enrich the models and increase consumer choice.

Recently, the German car company Volkswagen Group, which is deeply involved in the crisis of diesel vehicles, had an emergency coaching change. The new chief executive, Herbert Diess, vowed to accelerate the transformation of the public to electric vehicles.

As early as last year, Volkswagen announced the "electricity road map", and it plans to achieve full-fledged electrification by 2030. By then, about 300 models of Volkswagen's all brands will have electric versions. To this end, Volkswagen will invest 20 billion euros to build two new electric platforms, upgrade plant systems, build charging infrastructure, and develop and produce batteries. In the short period of 2 to 3 years, Volkswagen plans to launch 15 electric models.

Cai Che, chairman of Daimler, also said that by 2022, all Mercedes-Benz models will have electric version, and Smart brand will achieve pure electric. By then, Mercedes-Benz will have at least 50 hybrid or pure electric vehicles available for market selection.

BMW is also actively transforming its layout. By 2025, it plans to provide 25 electric models, of which 12 models are pure electric models. Opel Group stated that it will strengthen the research and development of electric vehicles and accelerate the transition to electrification.

Zhang Hui, general manager of WeiLi Automotive (Germany), a Chinese smart electric vehicle company, said that the German automobile industry has a long history and strong technology accumulation. The research and development of electric vehicles also take the lead in the world. In the future, its strength and development speed in the field of electric vehicles should not be tolerated. Xiao Yan.

Japan: New energy vehicles move from unipolar to multipolar

Through the development of new industry standards, breakthroughs in technological bottlenecks and other initiatives, the development of Japan's new energy automotive industry is moving from unipolar to multipolar.

Drive more and more diverse

When talking about Japan's new energy vehicles, it is estimated that 90% of people think of the first is a hybrid car represented by the Toyota Prius.

Toyota started research on hybrid technology since the 1960s. The Prius, which began selling in 1997, is the world's first mass-produced hybrid vehicle. Today, the Prius has been updated to the 4th generation and has gained widespread market acceptance.

At present, Toyota's hybrid vehicle product line is increasingly abundant. The low-end VIZ, Corolla, Camry, high-end crown, Lexus, sport-utility vehicle C-HR, multi-purpose vehicle Alfa, etc., all Toyota's classic models have added a hybrid version. The same model, almost configuration, the hybrid version of the price converted into the renminbi than traditional gasoline vehicles only expensive 20,000 to 10,000, and 100 kilometers of fuel consumption is only about half of gasoline vehicles. Whether from an economic perspective or from an environmental perspective, many Japanese consumers are willing to choose hybrid vehicles.

Ten years after the Prius ruled the new energy vehicle market, Nissan's pure electric vehicle leaf broke this pattern.

In the early days of the tour, the cruising distance was not long, and the charging time was long. In addition, due to the imperfect supporting facilities such as charging piles in the society, despite having a “zero emission” name, consumers still have concerns about starting. With the continuous improvement of technology, the latest leaflet listed in October 2017 has been able to achieve a battery life of 400 kilometers on a single charge, and it takes only 40 minutes to charge to 80% using fast charging.

Rapid charging devices have also been widely used in gas stations, parking lots, and 4S shops in Japan. Accompanied by this, the pace of sales for the Leaf has also accelerated. At present, the cumulative global sales volume of the Leaf has exceeded 300,000 vehicles, making it the world’s most-selling pure electric vehicle.

Another new energy vehicle is the fuel cell vehicle. Toyota is also at the forefront in this regard. Toyota has always positioned hydrogen as "the dominant energy source in the future," and fuel cell vehicles as "the ultimate eco-car." Toyota began developing fuel cell vehicles in 1992, even earlier than the Prius. At the end of 2014, Toyota's fuel cell car was officially launched in the future. This is the world's first mass-produced sedan-type fuel cell vehicle. The "future" fuel cell system incorporates fuel cell technology and hybrid technology. Its energy efficiency is higher than that of an internal combustion engine, and it does not emit carbon dioxide while traveling. Hydrogenation only takes about 3 minutes and the cruising distance is 650 kilometers.

However, fuel cell vehicles also encountered the problem of imperfect supporting facilities, that is, the construction of hydrogen stations could not keep up. At present, there are less than 100 hydrogen refueling stations in Japan, and the construction cost for a hydrogen refueling station is 400 to 500 million yen. The shortage of hydrogen refueling stations coupled with high selling prices severely constrains the popularity of fuel cell vehicles.

Market policy is the baton

In the past, several major automobile manufacturers in Japan have made clear-cut and individual advantages in the development direction of new energy vehicles. Toyota and Honda are the pioneers of hybrid vehicles, and the strengths of Nissan and Mitsubishi are all pure electric technology. However, in recent years this line has gradually blurred. An important background is that countries have successively introduced policies that attach importance to and promote the popularization of electric vehicles: California states that sales of electric vehicles must account for a certain proportion of new car sales; China provides more generous subsidies for consumers who purchase electric cars. Many countries in the EU have announced that they will ban the sale of fuel vehicles.

In this context, Toyota intends to upgrade its eco-car strategy to an all-round strategy that includes pure electric vehicles. It plans to establish and improve the system for mass production of electric vehicles by 2020 and formally enter the electric vehicle market. In addition, Toyota also announced that by 2030, the use of electric vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid vehicles will account for a proportion of Toyota's global sales from the current 15 % increased to more than 50%.

Similarly, Honda has also started a pure electric vehicle program. Honda released a HondaUrban EV Concept, a pure electric concept car, at the Tokyo Motor Show held in November 2017 and disclosed the concept of a pure electric vehicle based on the concept car in the European market in 2019 and the Japanese market in 2020. Honda’s goal is that by 2030, two-thirds of all cars sold worldwide use electric technology.

On the other hand, the Nissan of the pure electric camp has been promoting e-power hybrid technology in recent years. This hybrid approach is different from Toyota's traditional hybrid hybrid approach. Vehicles can be refueled just like ordinary cars. As a result, the constraints of infrastructure are much smaller than pure electric vehicles that rely solely on onboard battery-powered batteries. Because the engine does not directly drive the vehicle, it can select the best time to generate electricity, with excellent fuel efficiency. Each liter of gasoline can support more than 30 kilometers of driving. At the same time, such vehicles have comparable acceleration performance with pure electric vehicles.

Artificial intelligence is imperative

No matter what kind of technical direction, the future development trend of Japan's new energy vehicles can not be separated from the integration of artificial intelligence and automatic driving technology.

At the 45th Tokyo Motor Show, Nissan introduced the concept car IMx for the first time. With the ultrasonic sensor on the center console and the camera of the dashboard, IMx can capture the driver's subtle hand movements and eyes and operate the vehicle accordingly. It is reported that at present, IMx has achieved full-automatic driving, which is truly unmanned. In the future, IMx can send its owner to the destination and then go home alone.

Following the new Serena and X-trail, Nissan’s new airsoon, which was released in early October 2017, also features ProPILOT technology that can be automatically driven in the same lane of a highway, and can also automatically park. Nissan plans to launch a vehicle equipped with a third-level autopilot technology in 2020. By then, vehicles can automatically change lanes while driving on a highway.

The core technology of Toyota's "Love i" series concept car is to use artificial intelligence to identify the driver's feelings, infer their preferences, thereby improving driving safety, and let people experience new driving pleasure.

According to reports, "Love i" series vehicles can learn the user's usual habits and action patterns. With accumulated big data, the data center can push the information they need to the vehicle when the user needs it.

Honda also disclosed its blueprint for autonomous driving development in June 2017. It plans to implement automatic driving of vehicles on the expressway by 2020, and then expands to ordinary roads, and strives to technically achieve highly automated driving for individual car users before and after 2025 ( Equivalent to 4-level automatic driving, which means that vehicles can automatically complete formation formation, actively avoid obstacles, change overtaking and other functions on local road conditions, including highways and ordinary roads in urban areas or suburban areas.

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