OFweek Smart Home Network News When Nanshan District, Shenzhen, the number of planners soared to several hundred, the sensitive smelling nuggets realized that the startup company has become a supporting role in the story.
Yes, BATJ, Xiaomi, and Lenovo have all arrived at the scene, and they are very enthusiastic. Do flow entrance, build an ecological platform, become a home terminal, smart speakers are expected.
In the consumer market, this is destined to be a game where the crowds are playing and running. So, three years ago, the old king who started his business as a smart speaker transformed his team into a technical solution company.
At the end of the supply chain, for the profit of the orders, the foundries scrambled for me and even tried to pay a million yuan to make a deal. "At the end of the day, they are all working for big companies. In any case, I decided to give up." The old Zhou, who had fought for five years in Shenzhen's supply chain market, said that he would not be willing to take this trickle.
"Customers at home and abroad are accustomed to differences and the domestic market demand is not rigid. I am pessimistic about the domestic market." Zhao Nan, Executive Director of Xiangfeng Investment, talked about the coolness of smart speakers, which is also a typical response of investors.
Based on the follow-up survey of online Taobao (including Tmall) sales data, the total monthly sales of smart speaker products were less than 20,000 units. Do not believe that the investment market for cakes shows that "the market data shows everything and there is no point on paper."
The influx of big players, the cooling down of the capital market, the supply chain being passive, and the entrepreneurs finding another way out, the sales figures are dismal. This is the “sound speaker dream†matured by artificial intelligence, who will finally come to a final decision?
First, the Great Leap Forward
Three years ago, Amazon smart speaker Echo released, integrated audio assistant system Alexa's smart speaker market began to ferment. Until last year, Echo's sales data began to make a qualitative leap, breaking through 5 million units in one fell swoop, becoming the largest sales volume of American home small speakers.
A year ago, Google launched a similar product, Google Home. In May of this year, Apple released HomePod on WWDC. At the same time, a large wave of Internet companies Xiaomi, Lenovo, Ali, Baidu, Tencent unwilling to be outdone, enthusiasm is high, according to Hulu Scoop to introduce almost the same shape of smart speakers.
In addition, Himalayan, cool dog, cheetah and other peripheral players enter in different positions; Haier, Midea and other home appliance brands urgently need new water testing technologies for small-sized home appliances; and more than 20 entrepreneurial teams.
The official rise of the domestic smart speaker market began in the second half of 2016, and this is the ripple effect of the steep increase in Amazon Echo sales.
Echo 2015 sales data trend
According to the online statistics of Slice Intelligence, since October 2015, Echo's sales have ushered in a blowout and reached a climax in November.
Of course, speaker form is not the key. Attracting many players, especially big players, is that Amazon has opened up the situation of intelligent voice systems. In the past half a year, 7,000 companies have access to the CES booth in the United States. Almost all Alexa's skills have exceeded 15,000. The emergence of successful precedents shows that the platform behind the smart speakers has a great imagination.
Giants rushed into the market and small and medium-sized companies flocked to the market, once raising the possibility that the smart speaker market could become a popular outlet.
Second, weak data
100,000 units, which is the total sales volume of smart speakers in 2016, and the data comes from the “2016 Annual Report of HKUST Telecom Co., Ltd.â€.
The Linglong Science and Technology Co., Ltd. is a joint venture of HKUST News and JD. Whether it is behind the voice of technical support, or e-commerce platform diversion capability, å®å’š å®å’š speakers are a rare combination of smart speakers in the domestic boxing.
According to the introduction of the speaker market department, as of the end of June this year, the volume of the squat speaker has increased by 130% compared to 2016. However, based on the annual sales of 100,000 units, this figure is still not ideal.
In Jingdong e-commerce platform, search for "smart speakers". Among the top 15 sales rankings, there are 13 speakers, of which 2 are cool dog speakers. This result does not actually have reference value. It can only indicate that the "100,000 units" and "130% growth" are not easy to come by.
According to Taobao (including Tmall) e-commerce platform, "smart speakers" for the search category, a 30-day survey of sales data. The monthly sales of more than 100 stores have more than 21 stores, covering a total of 15 brands (where OEM OEMs do not count), and the overall sales volume is 17,645 units.
Intelligent speaker online sales ranking
1) In the distribution of sales rankings, the top-ranked millet Internet speakers, S1 Bluetooth speakers, cool dog Pandora speaker prices are concentrated in the 150-400 yuan range; ranked fourth in the use of music card pots, the price Below 150 yuan, it wins with its unique shape and function.
2) In terms of product intelligence, it mainly refers to the realization of voice interaction functions. Among the 15 brands that sold more than 100 units a month, only two Xiaomi Internet speakers and Philips aw6005/Xiaofei Ali smart speakers achieved voice interaction, and they were only used when certain scenes were cut.
This, to some extent, also proves the tastelessness of current voice interactions.
3) It is easy to see from the price side that the two models of SONOS PLay5 and SONOS PLay1 occupy the space of the head, and their main functions are still focused on the sound quality and experience.
Smart speaker online market share distribution
4) Based on the monthly sales data of Taobao (including Tmall) e-commerce platform statistics, a total of 17,645 units were used to obtain the proportion of the sales volume of each brand. Xiaomi’s Internet sales accounted for 26%, and the overall share of the top three was more than half. The remaining brands have low market participation.
Overall, smart speaker online data based on the domestic market is not optimistic. At least, the stock market with monthly sales of less than 20,000 units and annual sales of no more than 1 million units is difficult to support the large-scale input mentioned in the previous article.
If two years ago, the smart speaker market data may be even more fierce. It is not difficult for us to understand the situation of Pharaoh Corp., which had entered the market at the end of 2015, and why it turned into a technical solution provider.
At the time, Pharaoh and his team described intelligent speakers as robots on the stage. When the smart home was in control, his face was confident and impassioned.
"Since the past few years until now, smart speakers haven't really taken off in the consumer market," Laowang said frankly. He predicts that the current stock market will be within a million units, and the real volume may not be until next year.
“This market needs to undergo a real change, and volume size is an important indicator. In China, at least a few million to tens of millions are needed to prove that the market is recognized, and it is also necessary to maintain a high degree of activity.†Think Big Chi provided a speech interaction program.
Third, the helplessness of the foundry
"There are 112 companies within one kilometer of Shenzhen Nanshan District to do voice intelligence." This is the general manager and vice president of Himalayan Hardware and the supply chain in the eyes of Li Haibo.
"But this is a program that has a background and can only accept the flow of beautiful plants." Lao Zhou said that this year's smart speaker outlet he did not want to rush.
"In the past few years, there has been no shortage of internet companies! Before LeTV was pitted, VR was devastated by the storm last year." Lao Zhou has already seen this year's exchange of Internet outlets, "repertoire", calm and cautious. a lot.
As soon as the tuyere arrives, orders are rushing to come. However, once the market cools down, a large number of overcapacity and pipeline resources invested in the early stage can only be digested by the supply chain.
According to Lao Zhou, due to the layout of major Internet companies, the current domestic OEM factories with a small scale have all received tasks. However, compared with the capacity of the foundry, the order volume is still “a small number of people with less meat, and the last thing is pitted by ordinary manufacturing and processing companies.â€
Its core lies in the fact that, tied up with big companies, the supply chain is in a passive state for a long time. “Maori is low, and even loses money to buy and sell. Most factories with background only need beautiful waterâ€.
In this process, the supply chain was pushed down, and the slow return of funds often occurred.
Xiao Yang of a mature project factory marketing department told Sina Technology that “the current competition of smart speaker solutions has become quite fierce. Because the program is relatively mature, the market has begun to take a low price, and some customers are mainly looking at the priceâ€.
According to Xiaoyang’s introduction, the billing period of large customers is a commonplace event, leading to a slow return of company funds. "In general, we need to advance 70% of the order amount, and the customer pays 30% in advance. When it comes to orders larger than 10K, the payment exceeds 1 million." This is one of the reasons why Lao Zhou is not willing to "play" with big companies.
“If Ali lost a smart speaker order, monthly MOQ (minimum order quantity, minimum order quantity) 100k, account period of 6 months, there is no advance payment, do you think there is no one to accept?†Lao Zhou asked himself, “There must be! But we can't pick it up. Actually, the account period is not a problem and there will be advancement from a third party. But the key is that the product has no profit. Basically, it is also a white job."
This is the helplessness of the foundry. But it's not that the brand side has no risk. "Amazon Echo, the domestic Tmall Elves will just move to adjust the selling price. Do you know how much turbulence it is for the solution provider?"
Who will decide?
In May of this year, Amazon Echo has experienced a full range of price cuts, including Echo, Echo Dot, and Echo Tap all reduced by 30-40 US dollars, and the 499 yuan Tmall Elves released this month, which caused no small for the foundry The impact means that programs that cost more than this will be overturned.
As mentioned earlier, the current stock of less than a million units in the country cannot support the massive influx of giants and entrepreneurs. If this bubble bursts, who will pay for it? What are the patterns of stop loss?
"There is a large volume influx, and there will certainly be many failure cases in the future. But for large companies, it is not a big investment in the research and development of a speaker; small companies do not recommend a platform, a front-end microphone array, and a back-end. Semantics is a very good entry point," said Liu Wei, a partner at Galaxy.com, to Sina Technology.
There is no need for scenes of voice interaction in the Chinese living habits. “This is the biggest market thresholdâ€. The investors interviewed have maintained a consistent view on the preconditions of market threshold or versatility, “there is no rigid demand in the domestic marketâ€. .
Regarding whether or not the main flow of Internet traffic can hopefully improve the current market situation, Paul of China Kechuangda said that it will not. The ecological improvement is indeed inseparable from Internet vendors. However, the history of hardware research and development of BAT has not been scaled without exception.
"The main reason is that Internet companies lack hardware genes, lack of supply chain capabilities, hardware design capabilities, and consumer electronics sales channel capabilities."
Looking at existing players, Alibaba and Tencent, who have a complete ecosystem, are optimistic, especially watching the opening of WeChat's entrance. "But they do not necessarily appear as hardware brand manufacturers, but they are more optimistic about branded speakers and consumer electronics products."
In addition, the improvement of supply chain capabilities is also an important condition. "The supply capacity of chip Ready and memory is enough to support the outbreak of sales in 2018."
Fifth, until the tide recedes
In the face of Gartner's technology maturity curve, the ups and downs have long been doomed to the ultimate fate and trend of the industry. But in spite of this, every turn and rise still affects people.
In fact, after the follow-up of the wind, in the face of the turmoil in the capital, the minds of the practitioners will still have a trace of persistence and determination.
As Lao Zhou said, this road is suitable for walking slowly.
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