Bloomberg recently published a survey report titled "Robots and Employment: Evidence from the US Labor Market," pointing out that arranging a robot for every 1,000 workers will lead to a reduction of 18-35 basis points in employment and a 25-50 basis point reduction in wages. .
The author of the article writes that the most obvious employment impact of robotics is manufacturing, especially in industries where robots are exposed to greater risks, as well as blue-collar workers, assembly workers and related occupations in the traditional manufacturing industry, and unaccepted. University education workers. In addition, the researchers were also surprised to find that the employment opportunities in other occupations increased little and almost could not offset the loss of employment in the manufacturing industry.
It is worth noting that the researchers pointed out that from 1990 to 2007, robots caused a 1% increase in the salary gap. And with the wider use of robots in all walks of life, will have greater impact, so there is room for further expansion of the wage gap.
The study also showed that the number of unemployed people who used robotics in the past 20 years was only 360,000-67,000. This implies that 3.5 million fixed jobs will be replaced by robots in the next 10 years, leading to a natural unemployment rate of more than 2%. The article concludes that this figure will also rise as the number of industrial robots is expected to quadruple.
The evidence presented here shows that automation will surpass other factors such as trade and overseas investment mentioned by President Trump during the campaign, posing a greater long-term threat to blue-collar workers. The researchers said that even if the import, offshoring, software replacement of employment, worker demographics, and industry type are controlled, the results of the study (ie, “robotics have a huge and powerful negative impact on employment and wagesâ€) remain strong. .
Economists have studied the effects of robots on the local economy, and have also broadened their horizons. In an isolated region, each and every one thousand workers is equipped with a robot, which will result in the unemployed of 6.2 workers and a drop of 0.7% in wages. But across the country, the impact is smaller because it creates jobs elsewhere.
Take the Detroit of the Motor City as an example. This is the largest gathering place for industrial robots and employment has been greatly affected. If car manufacturers hire fewer workers, car prices will be reduced, and jobs in other U.S. sectors, such as steel makers or taxi operators, may increase. At the same time, the Detroit’s spending on stores may decrease. Taking these factors into account, each and every one thousand workers is equipped with a robot, which will result in the unemployed of three workers and a drop of 0.25% in wages.
In addition, according to estimates by the International Federation of Robotics, there are approximately 1.5 million to 1.75 million industrial robots in the world, and this number will increase to 4 million to 6 million by 2025, mostly in the automotive and electronics industries. These studies mainly consider fully automated robots that do not require human operators and work through programming.
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