With the rapid development of new energy vehicles in recent years, major traditional automobile manufacturers have responded to the call of the times and invested heavily in the transformation of new energy industries. It is estimated that the fuel car will not exit the stage of the whole industry in a short time. In this context, lithium batteries and power batteries have been pushed to the windward side of new energy vehicles. The net profit of listed companies in lithium battery has risen by up to 22 times. The big cake of the automobile industry has been divided by new energy.
In the face of upstream companies whose net profit has increased several times in the new energy automobile industry chain, the high-margin label of the vehicle manufacturing industry has been removed. In the new energy vehicle sector, market competition is intensifying, subsidies are declining, and policy fluctuations are becoming the main yardstick for leading the profit distribution of the automobile industry.
If the auto industry is the thickest cake with the most profitable cream, then this big cake has been re-divided by the trend of the new energy auto industry. Judging from the listed companies that have released the first three quarters of results and official financial reports, the decline in the net profit of the listed companies in the first half of the year has further deteriorated in the third quarter, and the scope of losses has also expanded. As of October 26, there have been more than 10 mainstream listed automakers that have released their first three quarters of results, but eight have experienced a decline or loss.
Among them, only FAW Car and China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. are expected to increase their net profit year-on-year. Jianghuai Automobile, Changan Automobile, Jiangling Motors, Lifan Motors, and Zhongtong Bus have all issued early warnings of decline in performance; except for FAW Xiali, which has lost money in the first half of the year, Haima Automobile, Ankai bus also joined the loss team.
However, contrary to the general decline in the profits of listed companies, the upstream lithium battery and materials and equipment companies have been comprehensively harvested. Among the more than 30 listed lithium-listed companies that have announced their results, the net profit has increased by more than 20 times. According to statistics, in the newly announced Hurun Rich List, 42 people in the lithium battery industry were on the list, and 38 of them had doubled their net profit in the first half of the year.
In the face of upstream companies whose net profit has increased several times in the new energy automobile industry chain, the high-margin label of the vehicle manufacturing industry has been removed. In the new energy vehicle sector, market competition is intensifying, subsidies are declining, and policy fluctuations are becoming the main yardstick for leading the profit distribution of the automobile industry.
FAW Xiali is no longer the only loss-making car companyIn addition to several car companies listed in Hong Kong and SAIC, most listed car companies have released the first three quarters of results or official earnings. Although the black horse of the FAW sedan is a bright spot, more car companies have unstoppable access to the downswing channel.
Driven by the counter-attacks of FAW Mazda and Pentium brand sales, FAW Car sharply turned losses in the first three quarters, and its net profit increased to 275 million yuan to 305 million yuan. However, FAW Xiali, which is also a listed car company of FAW Group, continued its momentum and expected losses. It will expand from 686 million yuan in the first half of the year to 1.095 billion yuan to 1.155 billion yuan.
In the first half of the year, net profit fell 86% to only 24 million yuan in Haima Automobile. In the third quarter, sales continued to fall, eventually falling into a quagmire. The net profit was expected to be 40 million yuan to 90 million yuan, and the profit for the same period last year was 209 million yuan. Ankai passenger car also predicted a loss of 77 million yuan to 89 million yuan from January to September, down more than 4 times compared with the profit of 25.78 million yuan in the same period last year. The announcement said that the rapid decline in performance came from three reasons. First, due to the impact of policies, the scale of passenger car sales declined. Second, the changes in sales product structure led to lower overall gross profit margin. Third, affected by the national new energy policy, bank liabilities. Increased, financial expenses increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous year.
The impact of the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles and the decline in passenger car sales has affected many car companies. Jianghuai Automobile is affected by this. It is predicted that the net profit for the first nine months will drop by about 80%. Zhongtong Bus also expects its performance in January-September to drop sharply by 71.45%-75.84% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will drop to 110 million yuan to 130 million yuan. It is reported that in the week after the release of the third quarterly report on October 10, the share price of Zhongtong Bus has fallen by more than 17%.
In the day of October 26, three auto companies, Changan Automobile, Jiangling and Lifan, successively released their third-quarter earnings reports, and profits fell. Among them, Changan Automobile's revenue for the first three quarters fell by 4% to 51.431 billion yuan, and net profit of 5.811 billion yuan fell by 25%. Among the many financial indicators, inventory growth of 35%, net cash flow from operating activities fell sharply by 88.48%, causing concern and accused of greater risk. In the first three quarters of Jiangling Motors, the operating income was 22.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.21%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 644 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.15%. Lifan was dragged down by the sales of traditional models and the 35.9% decline in sales of new energy vehicles. The operating income in the first three quarters was 9.081 billion yuan, up 15.62% year-on-year; but the net profit was down 12.2% year-on-year to 164 million yuan.
Many car companies have seen revenue growth, but the decline in net profit means that the cost of the whole vehicle business is rising, while the profit caused by the lower price is declining. At the same time, the increase in investment in new energy and other aspects also leads to lower profits. One of the reasons.
Although there are still several listed car companies that have not released their performance expectations, they can be seen from the sales volume announced in the previous September. Among them, Great Wall Motor sold 683,800 units in the first nine months, down 3.19% from 706,300 units in the same period last year. The sales volume of the leading car company Yutong in the first three quarters was not optimistic, down 3.65% year-on-year. Zhongtai sold 183,400 units in the previous September, down 19.91% year-on-year. Only pure electric passenger vehicles in all categories achieved growth.
According to analysis data from securities analysts, the average net profit growth rate of the automobile industry in 2017 has been -3.66%. Industry trends show that the downturn in the traditional passenger car sector has not seen significant improvement. It is worth noting that although the medium and large SUVs are still selling well, the voice of “the SUV field is partially declining†has begun to appear. More importantly, with the increasingly fierce price war, the SUV's profit support for the company is no longer the same. Take Jiangling as an example. Although it still relies on the doubling of sales of SUVs, the total sales volume has increased by nearly 20% year-on-year. But net profit still fell more than 40%.
Lithium battery industry is full of power battery shufflingIn stark contrast to the net profit growth of the entire vehicle industry, the lithium battery-related materials and equipment industry, which is closely related to new energy vehicles, has grown steadily. Driven by the increase in demand and the rise in material prices, the profit growth of related listed companies has continuously hit a new high.
In the first half of the year, based on the highest net profit increase of more than 30 Lithium-listed companies, the Lithium-Ion listed companies that have announced the results of the first three quarters, Yiwei Lithium, Mengshi Technology, Keheng, Qifeng Lithium, Penghui The net profit of Energy, Jianruiengeng and other net profit increased by more than 100%. Among them, Keheng's net profit for the first three quarters was 135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2218.75%, mainly due to the substantial increase in sales orders of the company's main products for lithium battery cathode materials. In the first three quarters of the company, the company’s profit was 926 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1670.47%. Jianrui Woergy also continues to perform most prominently. It is estimated that net profit will reach 729 million to 754 million yuan, an increase of 800% from last year's 83.56 million yuan. According to the announcement, the main reason for the increase in performance was the increase in production and sales of lithium-ion batteries (groups), the rental of new energy vehicles and the increase in service business. In fact, since the completion of the acquisition of Watmar batteries in 2016, Jianruiwo has been growing rapidly in the new energy business.
In fact, the growth rate of lithium-listed companies has also been a record high since 2016. At the beginning of the year, there were 130 lithium battery concept stocks listed on the A-share market, saying that 129 of them were profitable in 2016, only 1 The home is in a state of loss. In this state, the lithium battery industry has also become an area where "the enchanting stocks" continue to haunt.
But the segmentation of the cake is clearly changing. In the power battery industry, which has soared in the past two years, the performance has begun to differentiate under the influence of new energy vehicle subsidies and delayed distribution, as well as market competition and policy fluctuations.
Among them, power battery companies that have invested more in technology upgrades and business expansion, such as Chengfei Integration (China Aviation Lithium Power), Polyfluoride, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc., have experienced different levels of performance decline this year, and in the earnings report, These power battery companies have mentioned that due to the general decline in the price of domestic new energy vehicle power batteries in 2017, the gross profit margin of power battery products has dropped significantly, thus affecting the overall profitability.
As a listed car that covers the entire vehicle and battery industry, BYD has become a trend sample. In the first half of this year, BYD's three major businesses, the automotive and secondary rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic business all experienced different declines. Only the mobile phone business experienced a substantial increase, and its mobile phone business mainly came from BYD Electronics.
On the whole, as the subsidies for new energy vehicles have accelerated by 20%, the industry's sense of crisis and window awareness have been strengthened. Power battery companies have to speed up the reshuffle in the mid-stream vehicle companies' demand for battery price reduction and upstream raw material price hikes. More mergers and acquisitions will continue to emerge.
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