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In the competition between robots and humans, who will be the winner? Last year, two famous economists described the future of humans as winning, but now they have announced that robots will be slightly better.
The industry most affected by automation is manufacturing. According to a new study by economist Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Pascual Restrepo of the Boston University, for every thousand workers Equipped with a robot will cause six workers to lose their jobs and their wages will fall by three quarters. This seems to be the first quantification and direct research on the negative effects of robotics.
The importance of this paper lies in the fact that the two researchers are famous in the industry, and they have been more optimistic about the impact of technology on employment. In an article published last year, they pointed out that the increase in automation may create new and better jobs. Therefore, employment and wages will eventually return to previous levels. Just as cranes replaced dock workers, they provided engineers and financiers with related work. In theory, new technologies created new jobs for software development and data analysis.
But that article is just a conceptual inference. The new research uses realistic data and shows a more pessimistic future. The researchers said that they were surprised to see little increase in job opportunities in other occupations and almost no way to compensate for the loss of employment in the manufacturing sector. They said that employment growth may still occur, but the current problem is that a large number of people are unemployed and there is no clear way out, especially for blue-collar workers who do not have a university degree. The outlook is worrying.
"The conclusion is that even if the overall employment and wage levels are restored, there will still be losers in the process. For these groups, recovery will take a long time," Asimoguro said. "If you worked in Detroit, In 10 years, you cannot have health skills, he said. "The market economy itself will not create employment opportunities for these workers to withstand the impact of change."
The paper's view of technology replacing employment opportunities is in contrast to the comments made by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who commented last week on the Axios website that AI was "not even The “replace human work†on radar screens requires “50-100 years of development.†(Not all artificial intelligence used by robots, MIT initiated the remarks on Nuchin in the magazine “Digital Economyâ€. In the end, the experts expressed the same widespread concern about robots leading to human unemployment.) This paper also helped to solve a mystery that has long puzzled economists: why machines do not replace workers and why they do not bring about an increase in productivity. In the industry, productivity has grown more than other industries, and now we can also find evidence in the employment data.This study analyzes the role of industrial robots in the local labor market in the United States. Between 1990 and 2007, robots were used. The number of unemployed people was 670,000. The article concludes that this number will rise as the number of industrial robots is expected to quadruple. The evidence in this article shows that automation will surpass the other factors such as trade and offshore investment mentioned by President Trump during the campaign and pose a greater long-term threat to blue-collar workers.The researchers said that even for imports, offshore outsourcing, and software to replace employment The conditions of the workers, the demographics of the workers, and the types of industries are controlled. The results of the research (ie, "the robot has a huge and powerful negative impact on employment and wages") are still strong.
The researchers found that robots impacted both men and women at the same time, but they had twice as much impact on men’s employment. These figures do not explain the reasons, but Mr. Asimogrou conjectured that women working in the low-job area are more able than men to bear the pressure of salary reductions.
Economists have studied the effects of robots on the local economy, and have also broadened their horizons. In an isolated region, each and every one thousand workers is equipped with a robot, which will result in the unemployed of 6.2 workers and a drop of 0.7% in wages. But across the country, the impact is smaller because it creates jobs elsewhere.
Take the Detroit of the Motor City as an example. This is the largest gathering place for industrial robots and employment has been greatly affected. If car manufacturers hire fewer workers, car prices will be reduced, and jobs in other U.S. sectors, such as steel makers or taxi operators, may increase. At the same time, the Detroit’s spending on stores may decrease. Taking these factors into account, each and every one thousand workers is equipped with a robot, which will result in the unemployed of three workers and a drop of 0.25% in wages.
As in the past, this discovery has triggered whether technology will help people work more efficiently and create new jobs, or eventually replace human arguments.
David Autor, a collaborator of Mr. Assimoglu at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States, believes that machines will complement rather than replace humans, and that machines cannot replicate human traits such as common sense and empathy. He said: "I don't think this paper is the final conclusion of this topic, but it is a well-conceived, thought-provoking, first step in this field," he said.
Mr. Restrepo said that the problem may be that the new jobs created by science and technology and the original work no longer have to use one place, just like the Rust Belt (Rust Belt, refers to the Midwestern United States - near the Great Lakes, where traditional industries have declined )Case. "I still believe there will be work in the next few years, although it may not be as much as we do today," he said. "But these data have caused me to worry about those who are in direct contact with the robot."
In addition to the automotive industry, industrial robots are also widely used in the manufacturing of electronic products, metal products, plastics and chemicals. They do not require human operations and can perform a variety of tasks such as welding, painting, and packaging. From 1993 to 2007, the United States added a new industrial robot for every thousand workers, mainly in the Midwest, South and East, and the use of robots in Western Europe is 1000:1.6.
The U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research report was released on Monday and the robot data used was from the International Robotics Federation (which is not using continuous data on the monetary value of robots). It analyzes the influence of robots on employment and wages in commuter areas and is a measure of the local economy.
The next question is whether the arrival of future wave of technology (such as machine learning, drones and driverless cars) will lead to similar results and make more people become victims.
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