Beware of the "debris flow effect" of the electronics industry

A while ago, there was a company owner with a large business group. As a chicken was accidentally killed by a restaurant chef, the group was ordered to investigate and the chef was finally found out and fired; but the large company he took charge of the accident recently. He did not have any way.

The same example has recently appeared on top government officials. In the face of falling bananas to two yuan, the government has used almost the power of the whole country to try to curb the continued decline in prices. However, there is not a single official who dares to say that the immediate problems are so urgent. Out || Taiwan’s electronics industry is facing the worst business crisis in three decades. If the crisis in the electronics industry has a domino effect, Taiwan’s economy may have to face an unprecedented tragic adjustment. However, the officials were eager to sell bananas, and they were indifferent to ProMOS' bankruptcy.

Since the beginning of this year, the jasmine revolution in the Middle East, the earthquake in Japan, and the debt crisis in Europe have spread to the recent US debt disputes, all of which have left the financial market unrest. However, global stock markets still have new highs in emerging markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Venezuela. Even Germany, which was hit by European debt, and the US stock market in the US debt crisis, South Korea, a Taiwan competitor, and the Chinese stock market that has not performed well in the past two years It is an uptrend. However, Taiwan stocks have fallen four times this year. Eighty-three percent has become the most vulnerable market in the Asia-Pacific region. The main reason is that Taiwan’s electronics industry has gradually lost its ability to compete in global competition and has shown itself as a failure.

This can be seen from this year's shareholder HTC in the fall with Apple's lawsuit, the stock price fell to 84 yuan in one fell swoop to see the clues. HTC’s share price reached 1,300 yuan on April 28, and its market value exceeded one trillion yuan, which surpassed Nokia, the global leader in mobile phones. However, since the announcement that S3 Graphics was eaten for 300 million U.S. dollars, HTC’s share price has fallen steadily, and by July 18, the market value has fallen by 33.36 billion yuan. HTC represents Taiwan’s most successful top companies in global competition. Today, stock prices have fallen rapidly. If competitiveness is reduced, this will be a worry for Taiwan.

The mobile phone wafer factory MediaTek fell from 490 yuan to 244 yuan in the past year. It is the best example of sticking to the frustration of the cottage. Compared with the rapid rise of Qualcomm, MediaTek is ready to switch to the smart phone chip. .

However, the real concern for Taiwan is probably Acer and Hon Hai. Their own brands and PC sales have been the second largest in the world. Within just six months, the stock price fell from 99 yuan to Rangi because of resignation. At thirty-eight yuan, the market value dropped from nearly 270 billion yuan to about 100 billion yuan; the stock price instantly evaporated 60%. In the end, Acer has had a problem. Many people are curious.

The other is Hon Hai, which most investors care about most. This is Taiwan's representative industry representative of the past two decades, and it is also the world's largest consumer of electronic consumer products can be cheaper. However, since the beginning of this year, Hon Hai’s share price has been falling and falling. Not only has the hundred-dollar mark fallen, but it has also dropped to 88 yuan in one breath. Gou Ting-ming wanted to turn the tide and still lost the general trend of external environmental adjustment.

The above four companies represent the competitiveness of Taiwan's electronics industry. In addition to the wafer foundry Tianwang Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., which is still performing steadily, it seems that the most competitive companies in the electronics industry have experienced problems at home. However, what really prompted the alarm was Taiwan’s most proud “two-mega-star” industry in the past. The two industries that first created Taiwan’s revenue-generating revenue companies have all encountered catastrophic challenges this year.

Among them, DRAM has become the standard "mishap". In the past three years, Formosa Plastics Group endorsed the South Asian Branch and the Central Asian Branch, has accumulated a loss of 12.87 billion yuan, if the Formosa Group is strong in capital, I am afraid that the old out. At present, there are only 2.7 billion yuan in the market value of South Asia Branch, the bank debt is as high as 104.9 billion yuan, the market value of Huayake is 337 million yuan, and the debt is 9.4 billion yuan. After Maode’s accident, the bank’s debt of 80 billion yuan was faint. Today, DRAM companies are facing huge losses, and huge debts can only be dragged down for a day. This situation is no different from Greek debt.

A DRAM has been overwhelming to Taiwan, and the panel has recently joined the ranks. Panel's original two tigers, AUO’s loss of 254 million yuan over the past two quarters, and Chi Mei's loss of 37.9 billion yuan, Taiwan's most competitive two panel makers are so miserable, not to mention Huaying and Caijing. Now.

If we add together the six most heavily indebted companies of the two trillion binary companies - Chi Mei Power, AUO, Hua Yake, Nan Ke, Powerchip, and Hua Ying, the debt has exceeded trillion. Most of these huge debts are borne by the joint stock loans of the public banks. Assuming that the bankruptcy of ProMOS is only a beginning, then the banking sector may have to bear the challenge of bad debts of trillion yuan this time.

In addition to the "two trillion double star" become "two trillion sad", the next Taiwan to worry about, but also heavy investment in the LED and solar energy, these two once brilliant red energy industry. The former has China's national policy support, which has evolved into a bargain-hunting competition after an extremely widening of the factory effect, which has caused Taiwanese LED plants to be overwhelmed with parry. Recently, the stock prices of Jingdian, Yiguang, Eddieson, and Yuyuan have plummeted. This culprit can be seen. scene.

Solar energy is also a huge expansion of the plant. In these years, both sides of the Strait have invested in solar energy. After the increase in production capacity, they also run into the European debt crisis. European subsidies policy has been blocked, and industrial killings are now more serious than imagined.

In the past two years, we have seen the rise of superstar Apple in the IT industry, but Apple won all over and created more losers. In particular, Apple's supply chain determines everything, such as the iPhone and iPad's core chip, Apple's use of ARM, Intel immediately suffered heavy damage, Samsung's AMOLED panel into the Apple supply chain, but also to Taiwan's dual tiger panel fatigue.

In this winner’s all-consuming game, Taiwan’s electronics industry has gradually lost ground. Apple’s lawsuit’s win over HTC is also part of this new strategy. Taiwan’s electronics industry has not competed with other people. It has also suffered from the high wages in China and the inability of raw material prices to rise up, as well as the double-tall impact of the Taiwan dollar and the yuan. The pressure is even greater than ever.

Taiwan’s electronics industry has always been regarded as an embarrassment and attracted top-ranking elites in Taiwan. Now that the favorable environment has completely changed, Taiwan’s next industry, which will experience hardship, is likely to appear in the electronics industry. The stock price plummeted, the wealth effect shrank, and the real estate industry was affected. The last bitter person would be the banking industry again. Because the traditional industry fell, there is at least one piece of land. If there is anything in the electronics industry that is short or long, I am afraid there will be nothing!

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