Increase in electricity price constitutes short-term favorable for thermal power companies

The on-grid electricity price of thermal power generation enterprises rose by 2.6 points per kilowatt-hour, which is undoubtedly a good news for thermal power companies. However, some securities analysts believe that thermal power companies have too many debts. Although the increase in electricity prices constitutes a positive result, it does not solve the fundamental problem of causing thermal power companies to lose money, namely the contradiction between “market coal” and “planned electricity”. May be short-term positive.

In fact, the market has already anticipated the increase in electricity prices. Since November, there have been repeated news that the price of electricity will be raised, and some shares of thermal power stocks have already been reflected. The electricity index rebounded from 1741 at the end of October to 2050, with the highest increase of 17.8%. It has been adjusted since the last week. The highest increase in the share price of Huaneng Power Co., Ltd., the leading thermal power producer, has reached 25%.

The price control measures have two characteristics: First, the thermal coal market price is the upper limit, that is, the coal price of 5500 kcal in the northern port of Qinhuangdao, not more than 800 yuan per ton; at the same time, the contract price of coal in 2012 is increasing. The amplitude is controlled within 5%; Secondly, the sales price and the on-grid price increase at the same time, and the price increase of the sale price is higher by 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, which will increase the production cost of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, etc. . On the whole, thermal power companies will become the biggest beneficiaries of this price increase, and the profitability of coal companies may be compressed. Cost pressures in high-energy-consuming industries have increased.

An electric power industry analyst believes that the price increase of thermal power, and the implementation of a ceiling price for coal, will be beneficial to thermal power companies in the short term, but will not solve the fundamental problem. The current pricing model for coal-electricity linkages is the marketization of coal prices, and electricity prices The government has determined that the price of electricity will not keep up with the increase in coal prices, and the power companies will suffer long-term losses. In addition, whether the coal ceiling price is actually implemented or not is also a problem.

Coal costs account for 70%-80% of the cost of thermal power generation companies. Since the end of 2008, with the economy picking up, the coal market price has been rising all the way, Qinhuangdao coal price rose from 500 yuan per ton to 800-900 yuan / ton. In this process, the price of electricity was only adjusted twice, digesting the increase of about RMB 150/ton. For a long time, the performance of many listed companies in the thermal power industry has been at a loss. Judging from the first three quarters of 2011, there are 10 listed companies with 27 thermal power losses; in 2010, there were 5 thermal power companies with losses, and only 12 companies with earnings per share exceeding 0.1 yuan.

In addition, raising the price of electricity has increased the cost pressure of high-energy-consuming industries. People from the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that from January to September this year, the power consumption of ferroalloy, calcium carbide, caustic soda, cement, steel and electrolytic aluminum increased by 16%, 15.8%, 13.9%, 13.7%, 12.6% and 11.9%, respectively. Properly adjusting electricity prices will play a positive role in restraining irrational electricity demand in high energy-consuming industries and promoting economic restructuring.