Dear Secretary Qiao, Academician Ni, Director Li, leaders, ladies and gentlemen! Below I will report to you the main content of our 2017 "Smart Hardware Industry White Paper". Mainly four aspects:
First, a summary of development. If we look back to 2007, we will find that we will witness the beginning of an ICT industry. From 2007, we will see that the terminals, users and traffic related to the mobile Internet are exploding, even close to 100% speed. The growth rate should be said to have not appeared in the entire ICT history. Throughout the development process, we can see that smartphones have led the decade of mobile Internet. In 2009, mobile smart terminal shipments exceeded PCs, and in five years exceeded functional machines. Today, mobile smart terminals are close to 1.5 billion increments per year. The mobile terminal passes its traffic, which exceeds 50% in Internet traffic. The user's usage time approaches TV, which is about four hours. It has also driven technology companies to occupy the top 50 in the world, especially from 2015 to today, the mobile Internet has entered a limited growth and even stagnated stage. We see that application growth is first of all slow, the application hardware requirements are almost no longer growing, 4G switching power has been released, and the application time has approached the ceiling of traditional media. Some of the smart products we are familiar with, including watches, wristbands and some smart homes, have not yet formed a new platform that rivals mobile phones. So what is the future development trend of smart hardware? What are the core technologies and major products in the future? This is what we are talking about today.
Everyone knows that after several years of development of intelligent hardware, there are some twists and turns, not 100% linear growth rate. Although the initial growth is relatively fast, but the growth rate has dropped to 20% or even 10% in the past two years, but today we look at the development of intelligent hardware. There is a dawn, the most important thing is that due to artificial intelligence, intelligent hardware will penetrate into all areas of social life, and it is necessary to solve many problems that smartphones cannot solve in many scenarios. Today, we look at this generation of artificial intelligence, especially based on deep learning neural networks, which is equivalent to solving all the scene problems with a similar general model. As long as there is standard data and computing power, this way will greatly release the development of intelligent hardware. Speed ​​and space, for example, we use the sweeping robot, many people do not need to buy it, because it is not smart enough, today we see the addition of machine vision sweeping robot, its intelligence is greatly increased, The overall level of application and intelligence will increase. In this case, we use it very well. This is a typical example. Of course, in the next five years, we analyze that smartphones are still a main part of the entire terminal system of this generation, as a relatively long computing platform. However, we believe that smartphones will face redistribution and diversion. We believe that some machine intelligence or intelligent hardware will follow human perception, assist human computing and memory, and have a lot of intelligent hardware.
However, although there is such assistance as artificial intelligence, we have many barriers to software and hardware technology in the development of intelligent hardware. For example, like virtual reality, due to the demand of near-eye display, from the current point of view, whether it is display, calculation, transmission, etc. The core technology can't meet the needs of users' better experience. For example, the example of unmanned driving by Academician Ni, the demand for computing, transmission, storage, etc., is also unsatisfactory today. In this case, the whole stage of ICT technology development is a normal state today. That is to say, the existing applications, the hardware requirements are no longer increased, and it is enough, today's hardware and core technology requirements. But new applications, new demands, but now unable to meet, or far away, this is an important obstacle I think.
With the integration of intelligent hardware technology and artificial intelligence technology into the entire ICT industry system, the entire ICT industry system will be lengthened and become more complicated. For example, artificial intelligence has increased the data acquisition, data cleaning, labeling, training, and intelligent services for the ICT industry system. Because it covers a wider range of technical systems and devices, it also increases the breadth of the ICT industry chain. And length. Under such circumstances, we believe that this will create new ones, and new infrastructure and enterprises will be born in the new industry cycle, as well as new business rules. We believe that smart hardware and artificial intelligence will drive the deep integration of human society and the Internet world. First of all, it can expand the length of integration. As I said just now, in fact, smartphones have taken up four hours of watching screens, other traditional media. Together, our eyes basically occupy seven to eight hours, and our eyes have already suffered too much radiation from the screen, so this time is already full. In addition, other digital methods, such as voice, are a good way to increase the length of time. In addition, the intensity of the fusion will be refined, and the entire application scenario will be added to the smart home and automotive fields. There are also some new artificial intelligence input methods that will increase the speed of integration. In short, the direction of moving our mobile Internet to the smart Internet is an overview.
Second, the global situation. We mainly focus on the main core technologies and major products. The main core technologies, we believe that there are three main aspects, computing, perception and networking. In terms of computing, it should be said that due to the penetration of artificial intelligence, computing technology has a systematic innovation in the demand for intelligence. This is a bottom-to-top innovation. The top includes cloud platform training and end-side reasoning. There is a high degree of synergy. The bottom layer includes Architectural innovations, including instruction sets and innovations in general-purpose, proprietary architectures, also exploit heterogeneous computing from the actual product level, from today's CPUs and simple GPUs to the integration of CPU+GPU+DSP+NPU heterogeneous computing, of course There will be a combination of hardware and software, including software, hardware support for general neural network computing, and support for specific universal recognition algorithms. The second is perception, which is also due to a variety of sensors and artificial intelligence algorithms that enable sensor fusion and multimodal sensing. The third is networking, networking due to the development of high-speed, low-power, short-distance network technology, will bring new opportunities for the development of intelligent hardware.
In terms of the top five products, we believe that the first one is mainly mobile phones, and it will take the lead of the entire generation of terminal systems for quite a long time. Today we see that smartphone growth has slowed down globally, and today may be Zero growth, even in terms of income scale, is negative growth. Of course, we look at different areas of the world and different regions. The difference is very large, like some countries including Southeast Asia and India, which may be in the state before our three or even five years market. Of course, we have also seen the main top five companies, the concentration has been relatively high, the first time after the Nokia era increased by 60%. Huawei, OPPO, and VIVO shipments are also growing rapidly. In mobile phones, we believe that image devices and technologies are currently the main direction. The image class includes dual-shot, full-screen, and it also has a subversive effect on image recognition and high-definition reconstruction. Maybe we can get everyone's mobile phone in the future to know if your mobile phone can support artificial intelligence. The image will be visible.
The second product is a robot. The robot should say that the service robot is growing rapidly. It should be said that the increase will quickly surpass the traditional robot. We see that the growth of military, medical and home robots is very fast. It also has some core technologies.
The third is virtual reality. Virtual reality has gone out of the hype period, and its growth rate will decline, but its basic ability is still in the process of improvement.
The fourth is the drone. The drone should say that it has entered the scale of growth. In 2017, it will reach 3 million and 6 billion. We also believe that, for example, in the military field, in the special field, it is possible that the drone will soon be able to surpass the ability of manned military aircraft. In the consumer-grade field, it is actually the era of Chinese oligarchs. At the professional level, plant protection, security, and power inspections are growing rapidly. Among them, the chip flight platform, as well as the obstacle avoidance tracking platform, etc., such technology is expanding the development of the application field, and the products and technologies are gradually enriched.
The fifth is the home field. Today we see that the smart home model will be closed to the cloud interaction + networking + control center mode, especially the smart speaker becomes the control center of today, of course, whether it can be innovative in the future, we are suspicious attitude. Of course, we can also see that smart applications also extend from the consumer to the production field. We can see that smartphones can't be done in many application scenarios. We see that the medical, transportation, and e-commerce fields are growing rapidly.
Third, China's development base and opportunities. It should be said that our country has initially achieved breakthrough conditions for the core technology systemization. Especially gratifying is that in this generation of development, not only the application, including the core chip, this chip is not only the cloud side, but also the end-side chip, and even realizes large-scale commercialization and expansion. We are in the application of technology, even ahead of the international, where we have a lot of big Internet companies and entrepreneurial companies, in many areas to cut through. Of course, we also have innovations in the world of intelligent hardware network technology, especially including some commercial scales of NB-IoT. The scale advantage of our products is also beginning to appear. Driven by leading enterprises, we have begun to develop from large to strong in the fields of smart phones, smart drones, and smart homes. It should be said that we have world-class influence companies, and we have formed a clustering advantage in various regions of the country. In the southeast coast, in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, in the central region, there are characteristic industrial clusters. We have also formed an industry intelligent application market with Internet characteristics. In this field, because our company is very fast, the innovation iteration is fast, and the product development speed is also very fast. There are many cross-border terminal innovations, through information. Exchange value-added, as well as open model changes, etc., to promote such market formation.
Fourth, problems and prospects. It should be said that there are still many problems in the development of China's intelligent hardware. This is actually a synchronous effect with the development of our entire ICT industry. In this case, we can see that the core capabilities of the system architecture are insufficient, including artificial intelligence chips such as smart phones. very high. Of course, we still have some problems with some devices, including the storage display, etc. In addition, we have not formed a relatively strong industrial ecology, which is also the most advanced giants and countries in the world, there are still some gaps, of course, in security and data. In terms of barriers, there are also some problems.
Let's finally look at it. We believe that smart hardware, artificial intelligence and 5G will become the three most important driving forces for information technology to penetrate into the physical world. It should be said that the mobile Internet has driven or created ten times the opportunity of the desktop Internet. With the mobile Internet and smart hardware plus artificial intelligence and 5G, such technology is leading the ICT technology and permeating the whole society, we will see that the entire ICT industry will have ten times or even a hundred times and thousands of opportunities. Today My introduction is here, thank you all!
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