Compared with us 30 years later, we are ignorant of what we are now. We must believe in the impossible, because we are still in the first hour of the first day - the beginning of the beginning.
I want to talk about the technical direction of the next 20 years.
Technology will have a way forward. I call it the inevitable, that is, this trend will happen like gravity. For example, with chips, radio waves, etc., the Internet will inevitably appear, and mobile phones will appear.
I don't want to say whether Apple will win, Tesla will win, China will be in the future, what the United States will be in the future, this is not what I said.
I am talking about a general trend. I believe these trends are predictable, but the details are unpredictable. For example, the phone will definitely appear, but Apple is not; the network will definitely appear, but Twitter is not.
I want to talk about some long-term trends. These inevitable trends are intertwined and interdependent, but finally move in the same direction.
1, the first trend: formation (becoming)
Everything is constantly upgrading
This is the first chapter of my book "Requirement", that is, everything has become something else, all things are a flowing state, and they are constantly changing.
How it will enter the valley when it rains, this route is definitely not known. But you must know the direction - because there is gravity, it must be downward.
Similar to the inevitable “gravityâ€, the business trend is also inevitable, and the overall trend must be predictable.
We have a choice. In the future, new technologies will inevitably emerge, and we can choose what form of new technology we want to appear – that is, “what is happening†is something we can choose.
The inevitable trend of talking today, mutual dependence and mutual support. In the future, everything has become something else, flowing and changing. Such a flow is happening from time to time.
For example, a type of product has become an invisible ordering service. In the past, you can buy goods in the mall, but now you can buy the corresponding services online, and part of the service contains the goods you need.
For example, from hardware to software, everything is now software, which is also a trend of flow.
For example, nowadays, nouns become verbs, and tangible things become intangible. There is also the transformation of products into services. Before selling finished products, it is tangible. Now it is intangible to order and order services.
We are in a liquid world, everything is constantly flowing, constantly upgrading, getting better and better. Like a car, this seems to be the most tangible thing we can imagine, but when you are sleeping, Tesla is constantly upgrading, it is getting better and better, this is a new world we are about to enter. .
What impact does this have on us?
First of all, lifelong learning, continuous learning. When you are always in a state of learning, you are always a new person. Everything is uncertain, you are always ignorant, no matter how old you are, at which stage of your life, there will always be new things, so we must be in a state of learning forever.
Second, everything is in the process of formation. What we saw before was the product, and now we are seeing the process. For example, we have previously obtained an encyclopedia that has been published. Today's Wikipedia is not an encyclopedia. It is a process of creating an encyclopedia. It has been changed and has been in the process of creation.
2. The second trend: Cognifying
The performance of cooperation with artificial intelligence determines your salary
The impact of future technological changes is permanent. Technology will be related to artificial intelligence. The technology needs to make everything smarter. This intellectual process is the change brought by technology.
Future technology is related to artificial intelligence. It is a technological trend that will bring fundamental changes to our society. It may be like the previous printing.
A lot of things have become very smart. For example, experts in X-rays will be replaced by artificial intelligence, and legal AI can read documents more efficiently than human lawyer assistants.
There are also pilots. For example, a plane with a voyage of 12 hours, a human pilot can work for seven or eight minutes, and the rest of the time is an AI flight. These have already happened.
Why do we still need artificial intelligence to help us drive? Such as Google's driverless car. Because they think differently than we do, we don't think about the complicated things, just focus on driving.
What we do in AI is not to make them smarter than people, because many aspects of them are smarter than people. We have to do all kinds of AI, so that they have a variety of ways of thinking.
Google trained artificial intelligence to play video games. It started 10 years ago. Google never thought about how to teach AI in the past, but how to learn AI. The difference between AI and human beings is that they think differently.
There will be tens of thousands of startups in the future, who are engaged in artificial intelligence for work in a certain field. With more and more users, the machine will become smarter and smarter. This is a way to snowball.
In the past, our perception of IQ was one-dimensional. This is a general cognition. We should not look at IQ as such. Our IQs play different pieces of music like different instruments, and different people play different pieces of music, so everyone's IQ is different. Animals, humans, and machines have different rhythms, so IQ is different.
Many people are also very worried that the robot will grab jobs with us. Some work can actually be done directly by the robot. What we do on the AI ​​is not to make the AI ​​smarter, but to let the AI ​​learn by itself and have more thinking and thinking.
There are a lot of new jobs, robots to help you do, and the number of jobs is constantly increasing.
AI helps humans from the era of electric power and steam to the colorful and modern world. In today's car, human muscle strength can be used to start 250 horsepower. We assume that a 250-horsepower car is converted into 250 ideas, then you are not driving a car, but an automated computer. The goal of the future of mankind is to use intelligence as a service that can be transmitted like electricity.
Therefore, work that requires less efficiency is more suitable for human beings, such as work that requires creativity, because creation itself is not about efficiency, and does not need to consider correctness. This is a work that human beings are suitable to do. Anything that looks particularly repetitive, meaningless, and has little fun can be done by the machine. So the Alpha dog and the men are unfair, because the AI ​​absorbs all the routines of the past.
No matter which field the future is, in fact it is the smartest person plus machine. The performance of cooperation with artificial intelligence determines your salary, you have to cooperate with the machine, not against them.
Guangzhou Yunge Tianhong Electronic Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.e-cigarettesfactory.com