Coal price or continuous high operation
The China Energy Research Institute’s Energy Policy Research Center recently issued a report stating that due to multiple factors such as the international coal price increase transmission and the ineffectiveness of the coal industry’s national price limit order, the coal supply and demand situation in 2011 was tight and loose after the coal market price was bullish.
The report judged that the actual execution price of key coal power contracts in 2011 will be raised by RMB 30/tonne on the basis of 2010. If electricity prices cannot be effectively channelled at the time, the loss of thermal power companies may further increase.
“Recently, several agencies have predicted that pressure on power companies will increase operating pressure, but I think that from the end of last year, after the National Development and Reform Commission imposed a price limit on key contract coal, at least on the surface, most of the contract coal prices are unlikely to increase.†March On the 1st, Li Ting, a coal analyst at the China National Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, told the China Economic Times that the effect of the government's limit order should not be ignored, but it can be predicted that the coal quality of the coal companies supplying power companies is expected to decline.
Zhang Xue, an analyst at the securities of the Pacific 11.86, 0.02, and 0.17% Securities, said in an interview with this reporter that due to the existence of a limit order at the end of last year, the possibility of rising contract coal this year is very small, but there is also hidden inflation. problem. That is, under the government's price control, the apparent price of coal does not increase, but it will lead to insufficient supply of coal and pressure on price increases.
“Under the limit order, the space and time for the price increase of coal will be delayed. This will also lead to low enthusiasm for coal companies. The supply of key contracted coal to power companies will be insufficient. Coal companies may reduce key contract coal for various reasons. Supply, and put these supplies into higher-priced markets." Zhang Xue said.
"In the first quarter of this year, coal prices may continue to operate at a high level." Li Ting analyzed that persistent inflation expectations will support commodity prices including coal. The current rise in prices is caused by a variety of factors such as ample liquidity, natural disasters, and rising import prices. The rise in consumer prices has made consumers have a stronger inflation expectation. In turn, consumer inflation expectations will support commodity prices.
For example, for coal purchasers, if they see that most of other commodities have risen to varying degrees, they will unconsciously increase their own acceptable purchase prices. For coal sellers, prices are expected to continue as a whole. In the event of an increase, sales quotation will not be easily reduced, and eventually the coal price will continue to remain high.
In addition, Li Ting also believes that the continued high price of international coal prices and other commodity prices will provide strong support for domestic coal prices. At present, whether it is international oil prices, coal prices, iron ore prices, or grain prices in the international market, are in a high position of operation, which undoubtedly brought a greater import inflationary pressure on the domestic market. From the perspective of international coal prices, although the upward trend has gradually weakened, but by a variety of factors, the short-term downward trend is difficult to form. It is expected that the international coal price will continue to be adjusted at a high level in the short term, thus forming a strong support for domestic coal prices.
Pacific Securities Zhang Xue said that due to the reduction and relaxation of the pressure of energy-saving emission reduction last year, it will make some high-energy-consuming industries to release coal demand, which will also promote the growth of coal demand, tight market supply. The main driving force for this year's rise in coal prices is tight inflation and supply. In addition, as coal imports in China remain high, the rise in international coal prices will further push up domestic coal prices.
Loss or increase in power companies
According to a report issued by the China Energy Research Institute, due to the large upward pressure on the prices of power coal, power company losses may increase. Although the National Development and Reform Commission has explicitly requested that the price of key coal contracts in 2011 be maintained at the level of the previous year, it must not disguise the price in any form. However, under the conditions of marketization, the effect of the national limit order in the coal industry is not obvious.
For example, in June and August 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission once limited the sales price of coal for two consecutive times and failed to restrain the rise in coal prices. Because the current market price is relatively high, selling to the market is more profitable than selling to contract power companies. Therefore, coal companies often reduce the supply of key contract coal by production and safety reasons, so that power generation companies can only purchase high-priced market coal. In addition, under the price restrictions, the quality of coal that coal companies supply to power companies cannot be guaranteed.
At the same time, some media recently quoted a person from the five major power generation groups as saying: “The cost of standard coal purchased by the five major power generation groups in January this year was 814 yuan/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 75 yuan, or 10.15%, and a month-on-month increase of 31 yuan. The increase was 3.96%."
Li Ting, a China-based circulation analyst, said that in January, the coal price in the domestic market fell in line, and the position of the top five power generation groups regarding the purchase price of standard coal in January rose by 3.96% month-on-month. This made most people unable to understand.
Li Ting analyzed that the increase in the cost of the five largest power generation enterprises cannot be ruled out because the market share of coal purchased by the five largest power generation companies has increased, but on the eve of the annual meeting of the two sessions, the thermal power companies may also throw such comments. In order to cause public opinion.
The China Energy Research Institute’s Energy Policy Research Center recently issued a report stating that due to multiple factors such as the international coal price increase transmission and the ineffectiveness of the coal industry’s national price limit order, the coal supply and demand situation in 2011 was tight and loose after the coal market price was bullish.
The report judged that the actual execution price of key coal power contracts in 2011 will be raised by RMB 30/tonne on the basis of 2010. If electricity prices cannot be effectively channelled at the time, the loss of thermal power companies may further increase.
“Recently, several agencies have predicted that pressure on power companies will increase operating pressure, but I think that from the end of last year, after the National Development and Reform Commission imposed a price limit on key contract coal, at least on the surface, most of the contract coal prices are unlikely to increase.†March On the 1st, Li Ting, a coal analyst at the China National Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, told the China Economic Times that the effect of the government's limit order should not be ignored, but it can be predicted that the coal quality of the coal companies supplying power companies is expected to decline.
Zhang Xue, an analyst at the securities of the Pacific 11.86, 0.02, and 0.17% Securities, said in an interview with this reporter that due to the existence of a limit order at the end of last year, the possibility of rising contract coal this year is very small, but there is also hidden inflation. problem. That is, under the government's price control, the apparent price of coal does not increase, but it will lead to insufficient supply of coal and pressure on price increases.
“Under the limit order, the space and time for the price increase of coal will be delayed. This will also lead to low enthusiasm for coal companies. The supply of key contracted coal to power companies will be insufficient. Coal companies may reduce key contract coal for various reasons. Supply, and put these supplies into higher-priced markets." Zhang Xue said.
"In the first quarter of this year, coal prices may continue to operate at a high level." Li Ting analyzed that persistent inflation expectations will support commodity prices including coal. The current rise in prices is caused by a variety of factors such as ample liquidity, natural disasters, and rising import prices. The rise in consumer prices has made consumers have a stronger inflation expectation. In turn, consumer inflation expectations will support commodity prices.
For example, for coal purchasers, if they see that most of other commodities have risen to varying degrees, they will unconsciously increase their own acceptable purchase prices. For coal sellers, prices are expected to continue as a whole. In the event of an increase, sales quotation will not be easily reduced, and eventually the coal price will continue to remain high.
In addition, Li Ting also believes that the continued high price of international coal prices and other commodity prices will provide strong support for domestic coal prices. At present, whether it is international oil prices, coal prices, iron ore prices, or grain prices in the international market, are in a high position of operation, which undoubtedly brought a greater import inflationary pressure on the domestic market. From the perspective of international coal prices, although the upward trend has gradually weakened, but by a variety of factors, the short-term downward trend is difficult to form. It is expected that the international coal price will continue to be adjusted at a high level in the short term, thus forming a strong support for domestic coal prices.
Pacific Securities Zhang Xue said that due to the reduction and relaxation of the pressure of energy-saving emission reduction last year, it will make some high-energy-consuming industries to release coal demand, which will also promote the growth of coal demand, tight market supply. The main driving force for this year's rise in coal prices is tight inflation and supply. In addition, as coal imports in China remain high, the rise in international coal prices will further push up domestic coal prices.
Loss or increase in power companies
According to a report issued by the China Energy Research Institute, due to the large upward pressure on the prices of power coal, power company losses may increase. Although the National Development and Reform Commission has explicitly requested that the price of key coal contracts in 2011 be maintained at the level of the previous year, it must not disguise the price in any form. However, under the conditions of marketization, the effect of the national limit order in the coal industry is not obvious.
For example, in June and August 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission once limited the sales price of coal for two consecutive times and failed to restrain the rise in coal prices. Because the current market price is relatively high, selling to the market is more profitable than selling to contract power companies. Therefore, coal companies often reduce the supply of key contract coal by production and safety reasons, so that power generation companies can only purchase high-priced market coal. In addition, under the price restrictions, the quality of coal that coal companies supply to power companies cannot be guaranteed.
At the same time, some media recently quoted a person from the five major power generation groups as saying: “The cost of standard coal purchased by the five major power generation groups in January this year was 814 yuan/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 75 yuan, or 10.15%, and a month-on-month increase of 31 yuan. The increase was 3.96%."
Li Ting, a China-based circulation analyst, said that in January, the coal price in the domestic market fell in line, and the position of the top five power generation groups regarding the purchase price of standard coal in January rose by 3.96% month-on-month. This made most people unable to understand.
Li Ting analyzed that the increase in the cost of the five largest power generation enterprises cannot be ruled out because the market share of coal purchased by the five largest power generation companies has increased, but on the eve of the annual meeting of the two sessions, the thermal power companies may also throw such comments. In order to cause public opinion.
Hammer /Scraper / Brick Layer / Trowel
Hand Tools Co., Ltd , http://www.nshandtools.com