[Exploring the impact of tariff reduction on various segments of the automobile market] Prior to this, Wilson conducted an overall analysis of the market impact of tariff reductions. He believes that a change in one variable in the auto market will result in different degrees of chain reaction to other dependent variables. How will the market that is caused by the reduction of tariffs spread? Let's find out together.
Impact on automotive market segments: Domestic B-level and SUV-level markets are more affected by the impact
In the past two years, the sales volume of imported cars in China has increased steadily, mainly in the sub-markets such as B-class, B-SUV and C-SUV. The sales volume of these three vehicles exceeds 50%, and a series of tariffs are brought down by tariff reductions. The adjustment is expected to have a positive impact on the overall sales volume of imported vehicles and the growth of key segments.
Wilson measured the impact of tariff reductions on imported vehicles in the sub-markets under joint ventures and independent brands. Based on an ideal 8% sales price discount, we found that both domestic and foreign brands, including domestic Class B and SUV The market has been hit harder.
The mainstream models under the B-class and SUV-class markets have been affected by varying degrees of impact.
Impact on the New Energy Vehicle Market: It is difficult to stimulate the price of domestic new energy vehicles in the short term
Tesla as the first foreign brand to lower prices may be able to win the recognition of Chinese consumers and leave a successful “PR†publicity for its future increase in China’s market share.
Tesla’s current sales in China are relatively small, and it adopts direct sales and flexible order and inventory management. By this policy, it may bring about gains. However, the price after the price reduction is still higher than the domestic new energy vehicle pricing, and it is difficult to shake up the selling price of domestic new energy vehicles in the short term.
Impact on some domestic luxury brand models: Imported BMW 5 Series has a greater impact risk
For the vehicles that have both domestic and imported channels, Mercedes-Benz E-Class and BMW 5 Series are taken as examples. Our analysis shows that in the total sales of models, there is a big gap between the imported models and the domestic models.
Imported Mercedes-Benz E-class officials have little effect on their domestic models after they are downgraded; imported BMW 5 Series officials have a high degree of overlap with domestic-made model prices, and there is a greater impact risk.
Market price transmission mechanism: from imported cars, corresponding domestic cars, luxury cars at the same level, joint-venture vehicles of the same level to autonomous cars of the same level
Take Mercedes-Benz C-Class as an example. After importing Mercedes-Benz C-Class officials, the price range will be closer to the domestic Mercedes-Benz C-class, which will in turn affect domestic Mercedes-Benz C-class sales; if domestic Mercedes-Benz C-Class needs stable sales, the current price will be adjusted (or Increase the same proportion of promotional offers), Wilson found through calculation that the domestic Mercedes-Benz C-class price range should be adjusted to 29.47-45.70 million.
If the domestic Mercedes-Benz C-class to adjust as above, will inevitably cause the follow-up of competitors A4L, and A4L's lowest price will touch the Camry's price range, thereby affecting Camry's sales performance.
According to Wilson’s conjecture, a similar price transmission effect will cause a chain reaction to form a conduction path of “imported cars → corresponding domestic cars → luxury cars of the same level → joint venture cars of the same level → autonomous cars of the same levelâ€.
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