LCD television panel shipments to China hit a new record high

DisplaySearch According to MarketWise-LCD Industry Dynamics, an NPD DisplaySearch monthly report, the number of LCD TV panels shipped to Chinese TV makers hit a record high, with shipments up to 5.5 million units in a single month in December, an increase from the previous month. 2%, but slightly lower than the previous expectations of 2%, the shipment volume compared to television manufacturers in August and September for the Eleventh Golden Week to prepare the panel even more.

The growth of panel shipments in December was inspired by the fairly good sales performance during the Golden Week holiday season, and it also had certain confidence in the Chinese market during the Spring Festival holiday sales. Prior to the Lunar New Year, Chinese TV manufacturers had moderately increased their stocking inventory, and it is expected that the inventory can be digested to normal levels after the holidays.

Recent industry surveys show that some panel makers are more active in the Chinese TV market. After the peak of shipments in December, panel shipments in January will be adjusted downward by 27% from the previous month; however, shipments are expected to increase further in February, with an estimated monthly growth of approximately 2%. The subsequent shipments will continue to increase. The monthly growth rate is expected to reach 31% in March. Such a plan will approach the record high level of shipments in December last year. Such a large-scale shipment increase plan is mainly to meet the seasonal demand in mainland China, which is to prepare for the next Golden Week.

Zhang Bing, director of market research at NPD DisplaySearch in China, said: “Because the time for the Spring Festival this year is earlier than in previous years, television brand manufacturers’ sales of flat-panel TVs continued from the New Year’s Day to the Spring Festival. There are quite a few consumers who purchase home appliances such as TVs in advance. The sales during the Spring Festival have a certain degree of decline compared to the same period of last year.On the whole, TV sales in the booming sales season from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival this year showed a trend of highs and lows.However, because the Spring Festival this year is very close to the New Year's Day, TV manufacturers generally have a TV sales during the period are not expected to be too high, and sales from the New Year's Day to the Spring Festival period are growing well. It is estimated that the post-holiday inventory will basically fall back to the normal level of 5-6 weeks."

The following is a follow-up analysis of NPD DisplaySearch's recent situation with panel makers from mainland China:

As mentioned earlier, in December of last year, Chinese TV manufacturers were very active in making up the panel and increasing the number of 3-4 weeks of inventory to prepare for the New Year's Day and the Lunar New Year holidays. This move resulted in the creation of panel shipments in December. Single month shipping new high. Judging from the December shipment results, Chi Mei Power has shipped TV panels to leading mainland China manufacturers, which is 7% higher than expected. South Korean panel makers such as LG Display and Samsung have only maintained their original target.

Chinese TV manufacturers increased the inventory level of the supply chain to 8-10 weeks before the Lunar New Year approached. During the holiday season, the forecasted inventory will fall to a normal level of 5-6 weeks after the holiday season.

The Chinese TV manufacturers have already raised their safety stocks at the end of December last year to meet the demand for the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival sales season. However, starting from the first quarter of 2012, local brand manufacturers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude towards panel price bargaining. It is because the current panel is still in a state of oversupply. On the other hand, it is because the next wave of strong sales season is waiting for the May Day holidays.

From the perspective of panel purchase plans, better December retail performance has led panel makers to increase their shipment targets in January. Taking Chi Meidian as an example, the shipment plan for the first quarter will increase. It is expected to increase by 9% in January, 17% in February and 6% in March. Judging from the current sales situation, TV sales before the Spring Festival and New Year's Day are better, but sales during the spring period are lower than expected, and the slowdown in demand in the later period will affect the follow-up replenishment plan of the brand manufacturers.

In terms of panel sales for Chinese local manufacturers, Chi Meidian continued to lead with 1.6 million shipments in December, LG Display shipped 1.3 million, Samsung shipped 1.2 million, and AUO shipped from 11 The third month fell to the fourth in December. From the estimated number of panels shipped in January to Chinese domestic brands, Chi Mei Power and Samsung continue to exert their efforts on the mainland market, and LG Display has basically maintained its original plan. In January, Samsung’s shipments to China’s domestic brands will rank higher than LG Display, ranking second, and the rankings of several other panel makers will remain unchanged.

Judging from the shipping plans in the coming months, Taiwan's panel makers will face sluggish growth in shipments, while the two Korean plants will continue to increase their plans to ship panels to Chinese domestic brands. For example, CMO lowered its shipment plan for February and picked up in March, but the shipment plan has been revised downwards since April; the two Korean factories Samsung and LG Dislay have both improved in March and April. Plan to ship panels to Chinese manufacturers. As a result, Korean panel makers seem to be expected to challenge the shipment of CMO panels to local manufacturers this year, and Samsung is also actively expanding its supply plan for domestic manufacturers of Open Cell. It is expected that Open Cell will account for shipments. 40-45% of total shipments; for direct-lit LED backlight panels, Samsung also plans to select specific products for joint development plans.

With regard to the Chinese government's demand stimulus plan, there have been rumours recently that the government is about to implement a new round of stimulus measures for household appliances, including the continuation of “new trade-in”, and the expansion of energy efficiency subsidies from the Beijing market to the country. However, these news have not been officially confirmed, and local brand manufacturers are cautiously optimistic about the demand this year. In addition, this year's Spring Festival is about two weeks earlier than in previous years. Some TV shipments for the Spring Festival occurred in December 2011, and the continuously rising CPI will also affect the spending on durable consumer goods such as television to some extent. Therefore, there is some uncertainty in China's overall television demand for 2012.