Even today’s negative reports on Tesla are overwhelming. For Chinese car companies, whether it’s a product launch or a news report, Tesla is deliberately or unintentionally used as a benchmark for its products. It has become a "value scale" for the automobile market and has become the "world currency" in the automotive field.
On May 10, according to the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System, Tesla invested in Shanghai to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 100 million yuan and a shareholder of TESLA MOTORS HK LIMITED. Tesla Motors Hong Kong Limited). The idea of ​​building a factory in Tesla China has been in existence for a long time.
Relevant data shows that China has become an important market for Tesla. The company's sales revenue in the Chinese market reached $1 billion in 2016, and in 2017 it grew to $2 billion, with revenues second only to the US market. On May 2, Tesla announced its first-quarter earnings. During the reporting period, the company's revenue reached US$3.41 billion, up from US$2.7 billion in the same period last year and an increase of over 26% year-on-year. For Tesla, who is tempted to quit and rumored to break down, the Chinese market seems to be his only lifeline.
As the Iphone of the automobile industry, Tesla has written his own unique history of innovation in all aspects, subverting people's perception of cars. From Roadster to Model S, a generation of car giants sang all the way, but why in recent years Is it troublesome again and again?
April is the nightmare of Iron Man Mask, in just two weeks:
- The Mountain View Expressway Model X died in a serious car accident and the NTSB began investigations.
- Model 3 is unable to climb out of productivity hell.
- Moody's downgraded Tesla's credit rating.
- A fund manager called Tesla is about to go bankrupt.
- Proactively recalled 123,000 Model Ss.
- The stock price plummeted.
A series of negative news has evolved into a rumor that the company is about to go bankrupt. Even Tesla's founder, Musk, has issued several tweets on April Fool's Day, arguing that the company has "completely and completely gone bankrupt."
Adequate cash flow is a strong guarantee for the development of the company
According to relevant information, Tesla’s cash flow was in jeopardy at the time, and industry analysts estimated that it might not last for several months. The financial situation of Tesla, which has many fans of "Iron Man - Musk" fans, is not as optimistic as expected at the time.
Although Tesla’s losses are the norm, the continued losses have caused the company’s cash flow to be exhausted. According to Tesla’s financial report, Tesla’s net loss for the entire fiscal year was $2.24 billion, which was attributed to The shareholder’s loss was $1.961 billion. At the beginning of April, Tesla's share price once fell below $250, and the latest price closed at $304.7. For Tesla, which has no cost in R&D investment, there is not enough cash flow to keep the product cycle smooth, and the increase in equipment investment brought about by the increase in Model 3 capacity is undoubtedly a disaster.
According to the financial report, the net outflow of cash flow generated by Tesla's Q4 investment activities in 2017 reached US$961 million. From the perspective of the whole year, this figure has reached 4.42 billion US dollars, and the net outflow has exceeded 3 billion US dollars in 2016. Some industry financial analysts believe that if Tesla still conducts business activities according to the amount of investment in previous years, Tesla will have to refinance or increase debt this year. In 2017, $4 billion in external financing saved Tesla, but in 2018, when electric vehicles are surging, can Iron Man still be cared for by God?
Insufficient production capacity of the product
If the lack of cash flow is only a financial problem, then Tesla's lack of capacity and the crisis of the entire company.
Due to Musk's obsession with automation, Model 3 production has been slow to go up. According to relevant information, on April 10, Goldman Sachs analysts released a negative research report on Tesla, which showed that Tesla may not be able to achieve its published Model 3 capacity target, he pointed out: " The continued production of the Model 3 car in the second quarter of this year is likely to be less than 2,000, although the company achieved the target of a Model 3 output of 2,000 in the first week of the first quarter of this year. We believe that Tes The company may maintain weekly Model 3 production at around 1400 units."
A weekly production forecast of 1,400 units is a big difference from Tesla’s promise in the earnings report that it will increase the production of Model 3 to about 5,000 units per week in about two months.
Insufficient production capacity of the main products directly leads to the rejection of the sale of sales. In fact, in a sense, the shortage of Tesla cash flow due to insufficient production capacity is interactive. According to Bloomberg estimates, Tesla consumes an average of $6,500 per minute, and Tesla's funds may be exhausted by the end of 2018. Unless there is a significant increase in vehicle production, or a new large capital injection, Tesla will run out of funds before the end of the year.
For sales, Tesla did not worry about it. According to relevant information, the number of orders for Model 3 has exceeded 450,000. But whether the existing capacity can support the increasingly hot orders is another big question mark.
China's last life-saving straw plant?
On May 10th, Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. officially obtained a business license. As the world's largest auto consumer, the Chinese market accounts for 20% of Tesla's global sales. Musk has said that the factory in China is Tes. Pull the key part of the layout.
According to the official website of the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System, Tesla does not involve the development, manufacture and sale of automobiles, but involves research and experimental development. As early as February last year, some media reported that Tesla will establish a joint venture with the Chinese side to build a production base with an annual output of 500,000 vehicles in Shanghai. However, Tesla and Shanghai Lingang have issued announcements to clarify that this rumor is not true. .
Although Musk frequently expressed his willingness to set up a super factory in China, there have been few substantial advances. However, there are various speculations on the follow-up development of Tesla in the market.
Li Yanwei, a member of the Expert Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that Tesla’s super engineering ideas should have a certain connection with the establishment of the plant. He believes: "The parts and components of electric vehicles are mostly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region. This region has high efficiency in logistics distribution and is suitable for factory production. Except for Shanghai, which is around Nanjing, of course Shanghai is the most likely."
A car analyst at a brokerage in Shanghai also said that "the Tesla established in Shanghai is not of a production nature in terms of registration, but I think that the future production in China is still very attractive to Tesla. Can drive sales growth and cost reduction."
The future of high cobalt prices shifting to new technologies is still unknown
According to a document published by SMM, on May 7th, Bloomberg News, Musk said in a discussion on the topic of income with analysts last Thursday, Tesla will reduce its dependence on cobalt resources. The company has cut the proportion of cobalt in batteries, which is a very expensive metal. Musk said: "We believe that the acquisition of cobalt resources is still difficult."
As the price of cobalt, which has nearly tripled in two years, the explosive growth of all the way, this is not a good news for the downstream cobalt industry, the automotive industry.
According to Bloomberg News from SMM, although Tesla has been using batteries with fewer cobalt models, each car produced by Tesla still consumes about 4.5 kg of cobalt, and other industries are also moving toward cobalt reduction. The use of battery development, the consulting company's managing director Simon Moores said that the industry needs more cobalt resources, the global dependence on the Congo will also increase, so the cobalt supply problem has not been resolved. Not only that, but the company also expects that cobalt-containing batteries will be completely replaced by other technologies in the next 10 years.
It is reported that Tesla recently released the "cobalt reduction nickel" strategy, while vigorously investing in the development and use of high-nickel ternary, the lithium-ion battery for Tesla is Japan's Panasonic company, is the world's master of high-nickel three One of several companies in the mass production technology uses nickel-cobalt lithium aluminate (NCA) in a ratio of 8:1.5:0.5. However, the market is still retaining reservations about the replacement of cobalt-containing battery technology. In the face of high material costs and technical changes that are difficult to achieve overnight, it may be annoying for Iron Man.
The history of Tesla's history of Chinese car companies
Since the subsidies for new energy vehicles have fallen, it seems that for domestic car companies, it is not only simple to find out who is in nude swimming. After the ebb tide, many car companies directly stranded on the beach, and there seems to be no chance to continue swimming. There are also many car companies that have successfully entered the huge market of blowouts, but have not escaped the hidden reefs in the sea.
Today's new energy vehicle market has already appeared in the "Warring States" era. Traditional car companies have merged with new energy car manufacturers, or they have transformed themselves into electric fields. At the same time, they have been attracted by huge markets, and many new electric manufacturers have begun. In the beginning, there are even more, the foreign car-making forces are eyeing, especially the Tesla, which is all over the headlines.
The news that Tesla is building a factory in Shanghai, for domestic car companies, does not seem to be as happy as consumers come. It is a "squid" - stimulating domestic car competition and cultivating new era electric vehicle talents for domestic automakers in the future; Or "invasive creatures" - completely destroying the hard-working manufacturers of cars in China. This result may only be proved by time.
While foreign auto companies continue to infiltrate the domestic market, domestic auto dealers are also constantly reshuffled, and even some companies outside the auto industry have also squeezed into this big gulf.
On May 15, 2018, Changyuan Group disclosed the “Prompt Announcement on the Abstract of the Gree Group Offer Reportâ€. According to the announcement, Gree Group intends to obtain 20% of its shares through partial offer, with an offer price of 19.8 yuan/share, compared with the price premium of Changguan Group before the suspension of 14.06%, based on the offer price, the total amount of funds required for the acquisition is approximately 5.246 billion. yuan.
This is another charge launched by the Gree in the field of new energy vehicles after Gree’s acquisition of Zhuhai Yinlong was blocked more than a year ago. According to the data, the Changyuan Group, which the Gree Group intends to acquire, was founded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1986. Since the main business of the Changyuan Group includes materials related to electric vehicles and other functional materials, the acquisition has once again caused the industry to “Greeâ€. Guessing the car.
For Dong Mingzhu's new energy vehicle layout, there are various suspicions in the market, especially the sudden non-dividends combined with Gree Electric, or some market participants believe that there may be a certain relationship between the two.
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